Brexit: the saga continues

For the tenth anniversary of Brexit, the BBC has broadcast a two-part series with people at the centre of it all reminiscing about events leading up to and following the 2016 referendum. It's title is: Brexit: A Very British Civil War, and its described as: "The inside story of a vote that divided a nation. Unravelling the rivalries, betrayals and conflicts that tore apart the campaigns, told by those at the heart of Leave and Remain."  I confess I haven’t bothered to watch it all, but I have seen a few clips and social media comments. As far as I can see, nobody who was deeply - or even peripherally - involved is crowing about it and proclaiming that it has been a great success, something we should have done years before. 

EU laws on the UK statute book "virtually negligible"

One of the big drivers of the leave vote in 2016 was the suggestion that the EU was responsible for a huge percentage of UK law, much of it ‘forced’ on us by unelected bureaucrats and not properly scrutinised by MPs and peers in parliament. I seem to remember all kinds of figures being bandied about, up to 70-75%, although the House of Commons Library put it much lower at about 13%. I was puzzled at the time how it could have been so hard to determine what the actual number was but now, as the government struggles to rid the UK Statute book of anything with the words Europe or Union in it, we are seeing just how exaggerated the figures were.

Matt Elliot and the Russian connection

Matt Elliot, of The Taxpayer’s Alliance, Conservative Friends of Russia, and Vote Leave has been rewarded for inflicting huge damage on this country by being elevated to the House of Lords in Liz Truss’ resignation honours list. It’s hard to know what’s worse, Truss having an honours list at all after 44 disastrous days or a man like Elliot being included on it. Not only do we have a Commons stuffed with useless nonentities we are now recruiting people with a proven track record of working against the interests of Britain and the British people joining the Upper House. 

The think tank puppeteers

Just how closely connected the right-wing think tanks and Economists for Brexit were to the government can be seen in an FT article about Liz Truss’ disastrous 44 days in No 10. The FT has interviewed several people who were at a meeting where the mini-budget first began to be fleshed out. The interviewees spoke on condition of anonymity. We know the names of all who were there, just not which of them spoke to the FT but you can guess because they’re all portraying themselves as not responsible or not wholly responsible.

Brexit - there's a long road ahead

I fear we have a long way to go to reverse Brexit, although I don’t doubt it will be reversed at some point. I had an email exchange the other day with an old colleague. He is one of the nicest blokes you could wish to meet and works at a company importing spare parts for machines, mainly from Europe. I emailed him (we occasionally exchange emails but never about Brexit) to ask how it was going with Brexit and all, just out of interest.

Is Brussels giving up on Britain?

The EU have given up on Brexit it seems.  Jennifer Rankin, The Guardian's reporter in Brussels, has been speaking to officials about the future relationship talks and they appear resigned about it all and are focusing on other issues. In the upcoming meeting of EU ambassadors next Wednesday discussion of Brexit has been taken off the agenda because of a lack of "any tangible progress." What is missing from her report is any sense of alarm in EU capitals.

Freeports plan rubbished

The question of freeports has come up again as one of the 'benefits' of Brexit. We know the Chancellor has spoken in favour of them and the government is planning ten dotted around the UK.  Now the FT have commissioned a report from the UK Trade Policy Observatory and finds that there is very little advantage, in fact the duty savings are said to be non-existent. Steve Peers tweeted a link to the FT article by Peter Foster yesterday:

The wrong kind of pallets

Something caught my eye on Chris Grey's excellent blog yesterday about wooden pallets and compliance with ISPM15 (International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures) - which requires heat treatment to eradicate bark beetle and fungal infestations and stencil marking to show compliance. I have had a link on this blog since March 2019 to the Irish border blog where this was pointed out.  Apperently, the head of the Timber and Pallet Confederation has written to DEFRA warning that Britain won't have enough pallets to comply with the rule by the end of January.

Matthew Elliot: don't worry about the pandemic, Brexit is the important thing

Matthew Elliot was the CEO of Vote Leave, the official campaign for Brexit in the referendum. He's now political adviser to Shore Capital, one of those mysterious (to me) 'asset management' groups. Looking back he was the perfect choice for those who wanted to leave the EU. He didn't care what methods were used and, like the campaign director, Dominic Cummings believed the end justified the means. I mention him now because he was on the Andrew Marr show yesterday.

EASA: taking back control

Grant Shapps' statement in the USA that we will withdraw from the EASA at the end of the year continues to reverberate around the aviation industry. I don't think it will come as a complete shock although the trade body ADS (Aerospace, Defence, Security & Space) released a statement which said they were  "disappointed that it [the government] has not taken a more ambitious approach". ADS claimed that remaining in the EASA was "the best option to maintain the competitiveness of our £36bn aerospace industry and our access to global export markets".

The tunnel at the end of the light

We are finally on the edge of the notional cliff. In fourteen hours we take an irreversible leap into the great unknown, technically out of the EU with no quick way back. It's a moment for sad reflection. Ahead of us is an eleven month 'transition' period in which to negotiate a free trade deal. I put transition in inverted commas because the details of the FTA won't be known until the very end in which case we'll be exiting with no 'transition' period at all. Is that reasonable? Probably not. Business and government will almost certainly need a further transition period to build infrastructure and design and test the systems needed. I don't think we will escape another year of transition at least. That's just my opinion of course and we'll see what happens.

Counting the cost of Brexit

Bloomberg carried a story the other day about the cost of Brexit so far. They calculated it at £130 billion, rising to £200 billion by the year end. This was done by looking at the G7 average growth and then comparing where we expected to be, had the referendum not taken place, to where we are now. The impact of slowing growth on a near £2 trillion economy is significant and the gap will grow wider as time goes on.  

Is Johnson a security risk? The pressure is growing.

The prime minister is coming under the spotlight quite a bit this weekend.  The suppression of the report into Russian interference which he has personally blocked is starting to take centre stage. The Mail on Sunday reports allegations that Johnson was 'compromised' by a Russian businessman in 2018. I suspect this is Evgeny Lebedev who has a castle near Perugia in Italy which Johnson visited in July last year while he was Foreign Secretary and which was reported in The Guardian at the time.

PRIME MINISTER FINALLY STARTS TO BEND

No fireworks yesterday, but after the longest cabinet meeting in history the PM came out and effectively lit the blue touch paper. The display should be going nicely by the weekend. When you have to turn to your sworn enemy for help you have to admit you're in deep trouble. And when that person happens to be Jeremy Corbyn, a man she has demonised as unfit to lead the nation, it's even worse. No big resignations as yet but don't worry, it won't be long. 

MATTHEW ELLIOT AND EU FLEXIBILITY

Matthew Elliot was Chief Executive of the Vote Leave campaign and one of the 'masterminds' of the looming disaster that is Brexit. Apart from complaining about the Electoral Commission levying fines of £61,000 against Vote Leave for breaking electoral law he has been remarkably low key - and who can blame him, the nation is being torn apart by his pet project. He has however, now written a piece (HERE) for CityAM, an on-line version of a free daily business paper for London.

GERARD BATTEN

Gerard Batten, the pug faced leader of UKIP, was the guest speaker at an SOS Brexit meeting in Peterborough recently. From the local paper (HERE) it looked like a sparsely attended Help the Aged meeting for low IQ skinheads, but that's UKIP isn't it? They are preparing for the betrayal and Batten told the geriatric audience that, “If this government does not deliver Brexit, they will open the gates of hell.”  Some of them appeared to have entered the meeting through the very gates he was talking about. You get such a nice class of elderly, unrepentant, slack-jawed sinner in Peterborough don't you?

UNEMPLOYMENT - ONE OF BREXIT'S MANY ACHILLES HEELS

I have said before that Brexit could not have come at a worse time - for Brexiteers. The up to date unemployment figures for September were published last week HERE. They show the rate down to 4.0% or 1.36 million. These are excellent figures. When the referendum was held the rate was 4.9% and most forecasters expected the numbers to rise, but they haven't. However, we are now reaching what used to be called full employment - the irreducible rock bottom level which really just includes the people who are between jobs. It's hard to see it going much lower. And this is the problem for Brexiteers isn't it?

55 TUFTON STREET

Mark Littlewood of the think tank The Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA)  is in a bit of trouble this morning (HERE) after apparently suggesting to a potential donor that they could offer access to ministers and produce "research" that might be "shaped" by the donor. The earlier post on this blog (HERE) about Open Europe was also about a think tank. These are highly influential organisations that beaver away in the background for years and swing opinion towards their agenda or that of whoever is paying them.

OPEN EUROPE - Be careful what you campaign for

Open Europe is described on Wikipedia (HERE)  as a "socially and economically liberal pan-European think tank and campaign group" which "promotes retaining a close UK relationship with the EU, high levels of EU migration, as well as liberal economic and political reform of the remaining European Union".  It was  set up in 2005 prior to the Lisbon Treaty by a group of British businessmen to oppose further centralisation of power in the EU.

VOTE LEAVE - EC REPORT

The Electoral Commission's report into Vote Leave is HERE. I see that Matthew Elliot, the CEO of Vote Leave, is on TV saying the whole thing is politically motivated but looking through the report and having listened to the earlier evidence from the whistle blower Christopher Wylie, it's blindingly obvious that they broke the rules. Note the EC told Vote Leave in November 2017 that they were to be investigated and were asked to provide information. They dragged their feet until March and acted in an incredibly high handed attitude and they then gave an account that turned out to be untrue. The key sentence is highlighted below in civil servant speak (paragraph 4.10):