The last time we had a referendum on the EU in 1975 we were more or less united. The Labour government was in favour, the Conservatives had actually been responsible for taking us in so they were certainly pro EU and the press, even the right wing elements, broadly approved. When the votes were counted the public were 2:1 in favour.
And although some people disagreed with the Treaty of Rome, at least we knew what it was and hence what we were getting ourselves into. There was a mass of detail even if few people read the stuff. We went from A to B knowing what both entailed.
Contrast this with the present referendum. Both parties were (and are) split. This press was split and the referendum result was a narrow 52:48 victory for leave in a highly controversial even mendacious campaign. The devolved governments are split. Before the referendum the government and the leave campaign both decided against having a detailed plan ready. Imagine that, no detailed plan for the biggest constitutional decision this country has taken for forty years. And now, fifteen months on we still don't know where we're going. We are leaving B but with 17,410,742 potential destinations.
The cabinet can't agree and seem hell bent on the most catastrophic Brexit anyone can imagine. The Chancellor's allies are calling the foreign secretary "simple minded" (HERE) as BoJo veers between being a laughing stock here and a hate figure in European capitals. Brexit was always going to be complicated but it gets more complicated by the week and no one in government seems to have the slightest notion of what they're doing. The future partnership papers all seem to point towards membership when we've already notified Brussels we intend to leave. This is what having your cake and eating it looks like in practice.
I listen to former government ministers like Owen Patterson telling us trade will carry on after March 2019 just as it does now. He doesn't seem to realise in eighteen months we will become a "third country" with all that means for trade. Or that having taken back control we have now handed it all over to the EU. An explosive charge has been placed under the British economy and the timer is ticking. Only the EU can now switch it off.
They will decide on the trade deal and on virtually everything else that we want to continue to be a part of like Euratom, Europol, the Open Skies Agreement, Aviation Safety and so on and so on.
There is a mass of divisive legislation to get through the House of Commons. May's speech last week designed to break through the present impasse is greeted with weary resignation in Brussels for a lack of clarity again while some of her own MP's protest (HERE) about the two year transition.
We really are in an almighty mess. How can the government survive until 2022? It must be obvious that it can't. They have no plan and no agreement on how a plan might be formulated. How can our negotiators present a united position? How can an agreement be reached with the EU? If an agreement is reached how can Parliament ratify it? How can we prepare the nation for exit day?
I honestly do not think Brexit is going to happen - ever.
I honestly do not think Brexit is going to happen - ever.
