Today brings the start of the fourth round of negotiations in Brussels and follows Mrs May's damp squib speech in Florence designed to break the log jam that had stalled the talks. M Barnier has called for the UK negotiating team to come with "concrete" proposals. However, given the entirely predictable reaction on the Conservative right I wouldn't bet on any real progress being made this week.
The government is still negotiating with itself and a weak Theresa May is timidly trying to manage expectations at home rather than engage boldly and seriously in the limited time we have. I think most voters and probably a majority of those who voted to leave would be happy to accept that we must pay something and that a transition period to avoid an economic disaster is on balance a good thing. The howls of protest are coming from a minority on the extreme right but include some senior ministers like Fox and Johnson. She seems completely unable to convince them that these are minor, solvable issues in the grand scale of things and the answers are relatively easy and in our control.
On the other hand the Irish border question is a massive problem which no one appears to have an answer to. In spite of everyone saying there will be an invisible, soft border there are no "concrete" solutions that have even been tabled yet. The British position paper is just a lot of warm words and wishful thinking. Time and effort is needed on this but instead we have spent time preparing future partnership papers dealing with matters that are not even on the agenda yet!
So, I do not expect any break through. The EU will demand clarity and clear, workable proposals that recognise the reality of the situation. They can afford to wait as the clock ticks down and only they can grant a transition period. I fear that we are not yet in a position to offer anything remotely coherent - and I do not see any sign that we will get there any time soon.
It is going to take a shock, perhaps the banks or some big companies announcing a move into Europe as a consequence of the uncertainty, to shift thinking in government.
