A few days ago on 4th September the website Politicshome carried a report (HERE) that Guy Verhofstadt had claimed next week's scheduled start to a fourth round of negotiations would be delayed by a week to the 25th of September. This he said was in order to allow Mrs May to make an important statement on the 21st.
At the time this was greeted with some scepticism but yesterday a Times reporter in Brussels has tweeted this is exactly what is going to happen. The delay is apparently at our request. I note that later other news organisations picked it up - the BBC (HERE) and Reuters (HERE). What's odd is that The Telegraph has yet to report it at all, even this morning!
Considering we have been pressing to speed up the negotiations, to delay them by a week is a significant thing. What might she say in this "important statement"? The official reason for the delay is given that, "Both sides settled on the date after discussions between senior officials in recognition that more time for consultation would give negotiators the flexibility to make progress in the September round".
There was a suggestion she will announce we are going to walk away. I can't believe that. It would be insane and probably cause havoc with the pound on foreign exchanges. What might it be then? Perhaps she will announce Britain will effectively remain in the EU during the transition period. Or perhaps she will make an offer on money in return for starting trade negotiations.
She will be walking a tightrope. Walk away and she can expect a sharp response by the money markets, make the smallest concession to the EU and Brexiteers will be furious. Mrs May has no majority and is in thrall to back benchers and the DUP. She is like a leaf in the wind blown this way and that without a firm anchor to anything. However, a choice needs to be made sooner rather than later and I expect she will offer some concessions to get the talks on trade going in September.
Often these things are well orchestrated, Verhofstadt knew about it over a week ago so I expect the EU know already what she will say and will welcome it.
Update: Richard North's blog (HERE) says, Sources are suggesting that Mrs May might abandon the UK's attempt to agree a comprehensive FTA and instead by-pass the Commission by calling for direct talks with EEA members. The target would be a replacement EEA deal, under a different name, focusing on services and shorn of unrestricted freedom of movement.
If true this would be a surprise and presumably would take even longer than an FTA with the EU, even if all EEA members agreed to begin talks. What a strange race we are. Always late to the party, disruptive inside, always whingeing that we need special treatment and now suggesting the whole party break up when everyone is enjoying themselves, so we can reconvene in another house down the road.
