InFacts (HERE) seem to think Mrs May is about to announce a monumental U turn and say we will stay in both the single market and the customs union during the transition period. If correct, it will be a surprise to many that it took so long for the government to reach such a blindingly obvious conclusion. The Labour party have already adopted this position and will no doubt be delighted that the government will be belatedly endorsing their policy.
It was clear months ago that we don't have the capacity to set up all the new national bodies needed to take over the tasks that have hitherto been the responsibility of the EU while negotiating a trade deal with the EU, setting up a new customs regime, new immigration policy and all the other necessary things that would have to be done by the end of March 2019. It also recognises the EU have no interest in designing a new, bespoke arrangement just for us on a temporary basis.
So, again if it's correct, by remaining in the EU we will gain time and go a very long way to solving the money issue because we will continue paying into the EU budget for a couple of years at least allowing the EU to agree a new MAFF for the other 27 beginning in 2021.
The EU negotiating guidelines allow for a "time limited" transitional arrangement but does not say how long. I would be surprised if this was less than two years. The government will want to go into the 2022 GE having secured Brexit. Whether they will have achieved a smooth exit by then remains to be seen. The gamble for them will be having to ask for a second extension if by 2021 they still have no agreement, or it all going badly wrong by the time the voters go to the polling stations.
Downing Street have confirmed Mrs May's speech will be made on 22nd in Florence but have not given any actual details about what she will say, beyond it will be an update on the negotiations.
Some suggest she is aiming the speech at EU leaders (HERE), effectively appealing to them over the head of M Barnier. If so she might make, I assume, some small concession but ask for a bigger one from them, to ask for Barnier's mandate to be made more flexible. If I was Barnier I would be slightly miffed.
If, as others think, she announces some big concession on our part in return for a start to trade negotiations it will surely be David Davis who will be slighted. People may ask why she has to announce something that Davis could easily have done himself as part of the normal schedule.
Also why did the speech have to wait until the 22nd? Why could she not make the speech yesterday? Isn't it ready yet? Doesn't she know what she will say? Why waste another precious week?
