Theresa May's speech in Florence later today is being trailed, either through official copies circulated to the press beforehand or leaks after other cabinet members were briefed on its contents yesterday. According to The Guardian (HERE) she is going to ask EU leaders to be "creative" and "imaginative" which will come as a bit rich from a country leaving the bloc to "take back control". It will look like we are pleading. Having made an almighty mess we want others to dream up solutions to resolve it.
She is also apparently going to make an offer on the money although it is now being claimed this will not include a figure, rather a guarantee that no EU nation will be asked to contribute more or receive less up to 2020, as a result of the UK leaving. A figure of £20 billion had been mooted but may not be in the speech. Others think the signs from Downing Street are that it may all turn out to be damp squib after other cabinet members had a chance to water it down yesterday
In similar vein, The Telegraph (HERE) claims Mrs May will tell EU leaders "they" have a "profound responsibility" to make the Brexit deal work. If couched in those terms expect a sharp response from Barnier. And The Independent (HERE) reports Mrs May will say Europe's future depends on a good deal for us. This looks more like a veiled threat - give us what we want (whatever it is that we want!) or we'll bring Europe down.
The speech will have to be a masterclass in diplomacy to succeed. We have enough enemies, we need friends so upsetting the EU27 will not be helpful. She cannot afford for the speech to fall short otherwise we and she will look weak (as we are) and if it is pitched too far or gives too much away the Brexiteers will have her out of Downing Street in a flash. I suspect it will probably be a damp squib and the EU will politely acknowledge it but nothing will change.
And this comes with a new poll showing public opinion is starting to shift with a 52:48 majority for staying in the EU according to BMG for The Independent (HERE). I always wondered what would happen if opinion began to shift before the negotiations finished - we may be about to find out.
