There is the annual attempt to talk up the economy by those on the wrong side of the Brexit argument. The Telegraph (HERE) reports that the CEBR are forecasting we will overtake France by 2020, omitting the fact that we have fallen behind them this year. Isn't it strange that forecasts which seem to give a slim chance of Brexit bringing prosperity are treated as divine scripture, while anything that casts doubt on it is scaremongering?
And the Politico website (HERE) pick up comments made by a former most senior Treasury civil servant that the impact of Brexit "should be limited". Before we get too carried away though, Nick McPherson does add that this could happen, “If the government relentlessly focuses on achievable outcomes in Brussels and pursues a sensible economic policy at home, it could yet keep any lasting damage from Brexit to a minimum. But that remains a pretty big ‘if.'”.
Note the caveats. And damage is only going to be kept to a minimum, not avoided even if the government pursues "sensible economic policies" and focuses "relentlessly" on outcomes.
We will not be out of the woods for many years. Brexit uncertainty is going to drag on the economy for a while - until certainty takes over and drags us down even faster.
And perhaps we should take a look back at what these pro Brexit voices were saying twelve months ago. Andrew Davies, an economist writing for Brexit Central last December (HERE) said, "and we now know that Britain will have the fastest growing economy in the G7 this year (although you wouldn’t necessarily know it if you had a quick scan of the Twittersphere…). Note this year we had the slowest growing economy in the G7 and indeed in the EU. But where is Mr Davies to explain this is not connected with Brexit? He is strangely silent. I wonder why?
