Thursday 28 December 2017

WISHFUL THINKING AGAIN

The German foreign minister, Sigmar Gabriel, has made some comments about a "smart" deal with the UK that could become a model for future relations with other non EU countries like The Ukraine and Turkey (HERE). The Ukraine and Turkey are both supposed to be looking to become future members of the EU but are both a long way from joining. Mr Gabriel is obviously thinking along the lines of a single model that would allow countries to have a long term position, close to the EU without actual membership. This is logical.

For some reason The Telegraph HERE are taking this as a "boost" for Brexit. But The Ukraine is already committed to close regulatory alignment and Sigmar Gabriel is talking about a closer form of customs union with Turkey. I do not believe for a second that the German government is considering offering us a special deal with all the advantages of membership without any of the obligations.

What he is thinking about is another lesser status, below that of membership, that would suit all three non EU countries and perhaps others in the future. This is typical German thinking, to see an opportunity to design one solution that neatly solves three problems. It does not mean he is suggesting the benefits of membership are somehow to be devalued or watered down. Whatever he has in mind you can be sure it will benefit the EU more than it will help the UK post Brexit. It would be bad enough to have one country on the border of the EU pursuing regulatory divergence and negotiating trade deals with other third countries, but to have three such would be anathema.

It is more wishful thinking I'm afraid.  If anything he is proposing a status that would see us remaining close to the EU in perpetuity, making it so much easier for us to rejoin in future - along with The Ukraine perhaps?