Monday 29 January 2018

LONGWORTH & MINFORD v CARNEY

Our old imbecile mate John Longworth has been writing again on Brexit Central (HERE) and quoting figures from that other idiot from Economists with Learning Difficulties, Patrick Minford, that claim by leaving the EU and adopting "global trade" the EU (yes, the EU!) will lose £507 billion and the UK will gain £650 billion over 10 years. This is obviously why the EU is making all the demands in the negotiations while we are making all the concessions.

At the same time the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has been saying the opposite.

According to InFacts (HERE) the governor said:

He explained [..] the economy was “a percentage point less in size than we expected just before the vote” and that by the end of the year “probably two percentage points lower”. This, he said, works out as “tens of billions of pounds” less economic activity per year.

Note the difference. The central bank of the United Kingdom says there will be tens of billions LESS economic activity in this country by the end of the year, while a complete non-entity and a man widely regarded as totally unbalanced says we are going to be tens of billions BETTER OFF.

And economists from the IFS, perhaps the most respected and independent economic forecaster in Britain, have an article on the UK in A Changing Europe website (HERE) explaining how there will be no Brexit dividend and a £15 billion hit to public finances by 2020. And if we exit with no deal and trade under WTO terms, as Minford/Longworth want, the hit would be far bigger (HERE).

No doubt Minford and Longford will say we haven't left yet. But this means that people and especially business are so worried about becoming better off, they are cutting spending and investment in anticipation of it.  

It doesn't make sense does it?  Let's remind Longworth about this in a year or two.

You just know you're on a winner when you opponents cannot come up with anything respectable.