This is a bit of a laugh. A day after John Longworth (HERE) claimed that following Brexit we would be £650 billion better off after ten years, along comes Buzzfeed with details of the government's own sectoral analysis that show we will be worse off under every post Brexit scenario. How disappointing for him. In fact, in a no deal outcome (as he prefers) the government says the economy would be 8% smaller after 15 years. If I assume we get progressively poorer in linear fashion, it doesn't take a genius to see we will be worse off by about £1.3 trillion in 15 years.
Buzzfeed (HERE) claims to have seen a document: “EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing” and dated January 2018, that has been leaked but summarises the government's considered view of what is likely to happen when we leave the EU. There will be no Brexit dividend, no prospering like never before, no sunny uplands or strolls down easy street. We will be poorer under every imagined outcome - even with a FTA we will lose 2% of GDP. Buzzfeed says almost every sector and every region will be adversely affected.
The BBC are now covering the leaked report (HERE). Ian Duncan-Smith is on Radio 4 this morning trying to defend it, saying, as does the BBC, that the government don't deny the accuracy of the report but claim their preferred outcome wasn't modelled! This is the British way of doing things. You plan for every eventuality except the one you prefer. If we intend to confuse the EU this will certainly do it. I note IDS doesn't actually say we will be better off, he just says the forecasts are wrong. In IDS world there is no point in forecasting anything because they're always wrong.
The Independent covers the story HERE. But oddly, The Telegraph doesn't mention it! Imagine that. Government figures show Britain will be worse off under all scenarios of Brexit but one of the leading newspapers does not think it newsworthy. Could it have something to do with their campaign to persuade voters Brexit would be good for them?
The Sun (HERE) takes its usual combative approach about the leaked report and headlines the article: MPs slam ‘speculative’ Brexit report that was ‘deliberately leaked’ – and say a US deal would BOOST trade. They highlight that a US trade deal would "boost" growth by 0.2% in the long term - but say it would be 5% lower even under a comprehensive free trade deal with the EU. In other words a US FTA would reduce the reduction in growth from 5% to 4.8%!
The Sun (HERE) takes its usual combative approach about the leaked report and headlines the article: MPs slam ‘speculative’ Brexit report that was ‘deliberately leaked’ – and say a US deal would BOOST trade. They highlight that a US trade deal would "boost" growth by 0.2% in the long term - but say it would be 5% lower even under a comprehensive free trade deal with the EU. In other words a US FTA would reduce the reduction in growth from 5% to 4.8%!
