Dominic Lawson, the son of the former Chancellor Nigel, writes a column in The Sunday Times and this week mentioned that YouGov are running another tracker (HERE) asking: At this point would you prefer that Britain stays in or leaves the EU? There have been three polls since August last year, all showing a big lead for LEAVE, the last one 9%. At first I was slightly surprised so I checked on the website to find out a bit more.
First of all the funder of the polling is anonymous and after reading the detail it is quite obvious why. There have been just three polls :August (4% lead), October (2% lead) and December (9% lead). There seems to be a bit of a contradiction on the surface. The other tracker asking if the Brexit decision was RIGHT or WRONG has been showing a majority for WRONG since July 2017 (HERE). This looks as if people are anxious to get on with knowingly making a mistake - a bit irrational isn't it?
But reading the details of the polling Lawson quotes, I am actually reassured. The three polls ask different questions so they are not quite as easily comparable as the other tracker.
The first poll in August asks among other things, how people would feel if we stayed in the EU and it is surprisingly evenly split with 32% angry and 32% relieved. Another 30% would be disappointed, while 28% would be relieved. So, basically 50:50
In the October polling, people were asked in three polls who has the upper hand in the negotiations and consistently this is 60% who think this is the EU with only 10-14% who believe we have. A quarter don't know.
But the final poll is interesting because the first (highly leading) question is about comments by a German politician, Martin Schultz, calling for a United States of Europe. People surveyed were strongly against this (28%) while only 3% strongly supported it. There was no attempt to explain it and years of raising the USE as a spectre obviously swayed voters even if they didn't understand it. The poll then not surprisingly showed a 9% lead for wanting to leave the EU.
So, I am reassured that Dominic Lawson is forced to use what I believe is a highly misleading poll to try and convince himself and his readers that there is a growing majority to leave the EU. There isn't.
Another reason for the apparent contradiction is that for many, the difference between staying and leaving is marginal - at the moment. We already know many voters went to the booth in the referendum with no clear idea of which way they were to going to vote. It was a toss of the coin. For them staying and leaving were basically the same. We are still in the same position. Anyone who does not follow Brexit will have noticed no real change, and this might continue for some time.
It will be interesting to see the reaction of voters when it becomes clear there IS a difference and a rather big one. A slowing economy will have practical, real world consequences. When we leave things will be different. Agriculture, farming, prices as well as the type, source and quality of the goods we see in shops will be different. It is unlikely anyone will be entire happy. At that point I doubt that we will still see voters wanting to pursue a policy which is clearly and obviously a mistake.
You can see why the name of the organisation that funded the poll is not given. It is clearly a highly pro-Brexit body trying to create the impression of a nation becoming more enthusiastic for Brexit, something which is in my opinion never going to happen,
