Monday, 8 January 2018

BREXIT DIVISIONS

I sometimes think I am living in two separate, parallel universes which can never come into contact with each other for fear of some cataclysmic event, like matter and anti matter colliding. I try to read widely and look on line at various newspapers and websites that both support and oppose Brexit. There is almost no common ground and the divisions will last for years.

It is accepted, I think, that it was mainly poorly educated people who voted leave while the great majority of professionally qualified people supported remaining in the EU. I speak very generally since I am not professionally qualified either or even well educated, but I'm still a strong remainer. No doubt there are academics who are Eurosceptics too. But by and large, this is how the electorate split.

I read plenty of academic articles and especially I listen to experts giving evidence to Select Committees. They invariably (I use the word deliberately) produce clear, well argued points setting out the huge problems and contradictions in Brexit, many of which appear completely insoluble. Almost always the articles take a bit of reading and understanding but reward those willing to spend a bit of time on the subject. They are usually boringly prosaic.

On the other hand, I also read stuff claiming that Brexit is essential to our future and will bring prosperity, low prices in shops and a far more cohesive society. But these all tend to be written by people who never offer any evidence, or detail and are usually totally unqualified in the field they are writing of speaking about. They seem to be winging it with hope alone to support them. Their vision often appears inspiring and attractive, almost poetic.

I am a pessimist by nature and I suspect most remainers are the same. This is not to say I am opposed to change. We have many problems that do need addressing but I cannot be convinced about a change without seeing what I think sounds like a realistic and workable plan. Brexit is many things but it certainly isn't a plan, it's a dream. And a dream that virtually all the experts say is impossible. They point to all the intractable difficulties and the mutually exclusive commitments given to all and sundry. We are going to be out of the customs union with no hard border in Ireland for example.

We will leave the single market but get the "exact same benefits". No deal is better than a bad deal. Immigration will be "controlled" but low skilled workers will still be allowed in. We'll leave the EU but we may want to remain in any number of EU institutions. None of it adds up.

I genuinely don't believe anyone understands it all. There are experts who can explain the legal issues, others the environmental or the trade issues, or aviation or health and safety and so on but they are more or less universally ignored anyway. They issue warnings that go unheard by a public who think it's all straightforward having read so in the pages of The Express or The Daily Mail.

I am an ordinary person. I don't know what will happen over the next few years but it will genuinely shock me if the worst educated xenophobes are right and the academics and experts wrong. Faith in my fellow countrymen took a hit on June 24th 2016 but if Brexit is a success or even just not a disaster, it will be gone completely.