Tuesday 23 January 2018

MIXED MESSAGES ON THE GLOOMY ECONOMY

Talk about mixed messages. The former Treasury minister Lord O'Neill says the hit from Brexit could be dwarfed by global growth (HERE). At the same time, the IMF have downgraded UK growth prospects (HERE) while raising it for the rest of the world. Who to believe?

Lord O'Neill is a remainer and even though he is less pessimistic than he was, he still believes Brexit is a bad thing and the UK economy will in future perform less well than it otherwise would. 

This would in my opinion be the worst possible outcome. The slow and steady impoverishment of the country taking place at such a rate that it is hard to notice until it's too late.

I tend towards believing the short term hit from Brexit will be more severe than many think and over the long term the economy will not be wrecked but our reliance on foreign companies to boost our exports will be embarrassingly exposed. Jaguar - owned by the Indian company Tata - has already announced a scaling back of production (HERE) for which they blame at least partly on Brexit uncertainty. 

If one company is doing it you can bet others will soon follow.

The construction industry, a bell weather of the British economy and one where we used to say it was always the first in to a recession and the last one out, entered recession in November (HERE) and the collapse of the construction giant Carillion (HERE) is perhaps one example of others to come.