The last poll of 2017 in the series Whatukthinks: Was Britain right or wrong to vote to leave the EU, shows a 3% lead for WRONG (HERE). This is now twelve polls and almost six months since the last time a majority of people thought the vote was RIGHT. Compare this with the 10 polls during the second half of 2016 when just one had a WRONG majority, with RIGHT in a clear lead 9 times.
I assume there are serious people in the Conservative party who look at this polling and probably other private ones we never get to see. What do they think? Isn't it obvious that it's only a matter of time?
I confess the shift in the polls is not yet conclusive, but it will be. Leave voters of my own acquaintance show no sign of regret but it's clear that others do. The view of many die hard leavers is reinforced by the echo chamber of the pro Brexit press who are still able to convince the faithful that everything is on track and going well. Slower growth, the devaluation of Sterling and the diminished influence of the UK at the UN and the ICJ is simply ignored. The connection to Brexit is too nebulous at the moment and favours Brexiteers.
There will need to be incontrovertible proof that leaving the EU is damaging the country to cause a serious shift in the polls or even the slightest questioning of the entirely false belief that Brexit will somehow make us more prosperous and cohesive. This will come eventually I'm sure, either by a slow and debilitating decline in the economy until the difference between us and the EU becomes too big to hide, or by going over a cliff edge. The costs may be the same either way.
The price of shifting the polls will be huge but in the end we may have to pay it.
Can we hope for something in 2018 that might do it more cheaply?
The Irish border problem has the capacity to derail Brexit and there are still deep divisions inside the Tory party. Labour seem to be creeping at a glacial speed towards remaining in the single market and the customs union and could declare this as their policy during the year.
The stunning news that importers will have to pay VAT upfront on EU imports (HERE) seems to be something nobody thought about and although there maybe ways around it no one is explaining that the same will apply in reverse. EU companies my not be willing to tie up cash by importing from the UK, further undermining trade. This is an example of unforeseen difficulties.
Problems are mounting up and it would not be a surprise if some senior figures in the civil service or even in government resign over Brexit and spills the beans about the myriad obstacles in the way of a smooth Brexit.
The fight isn't over. It's barely begun.
