Monday, 8 January 2018

BREXIT DELEGATION TO VISIT BARNIER THIS WEEK

One never stops being amazed at the stupidity of Brexiteers. A small gang of them are planning to meet Michel Barnier to "warn" him that the UK has a Churchill like "iron will" to walk away from a bad deal according to The Telegraph HERE, which reports it gleefully. There is obviously a range of possible economic relationships with the EU and I don't believe I am saying anything contentious if I suggest membership is the best and WTO terms the worst, with various options in between. 

The delegation, including the prize pillock Lord Digby Jones, say unless we are offered something close to the best - if not actually the best I presume - we will walk away and go for the worst. Not one of the deluded leavers is in a position to make offers or threats on behalf of the British government, so it's all gesture politics anyway.

But their position is absolutely insane and more like that of a petulant child than anything else. First of all, I assume they are talking about the future relationship rather than the withdrawal terms although this isn't clear. As professor Michael Dougan said, giving evidence to the Brexit Select Committee in December, the country is in no position to cope with the consequences of leaving without a deal on withdrawal. This would be catastrophic with no one knowing anything with certainty about their legal position or residence rights, licensing agreements, intellectual property and a whole range of other vital issues.

So, let's assume they are only talking about trade. At the moment we have virtually frictionless cross border trade. We are never going to replicate that but to say that unless we get close to frictionless we will voluntarily opt for maximum friction is sheer perverse vandalism. It would damage both sides but mostly it would damage Britain. Any reduction in friction must be a good thing. No deal is the worst deal. A bad deal must be better than no deal. And by the time we get into the details of trade in 2020, much of the money that we are hoping to use as a lever, will have been paid so we will hardly be in a position to demand anything in return.

The Brexiteers cannot bring themselves to admit we are the supplicant. Stephen Wolfe of UKIP, another member of the delegation, is from a party that has attacked the government for conceding everything in the first phase and getting nothing in return after nine months of negotiation. The penny has not yet dropped. Another member of the delegation is John Longworth competing for the stupidest man in England title and miles in front at the moment.

Digby Jones often looks and sounds like a total idiot. He spoke at the 2013 UKIP party conference (HERE) where he told the audience of elderly imbeciles that we would have a free trade deal signed "with most countries in Europe" within 24 hours of leaving the EU (about 20 minutes in). Apparently, I am told he has also advocated not using the Article 50 process but simply repealing the 1973 European Communities Act.

He does not seem to realise that no country in Europe can sign a trade deal with us because trade is an exclusive competence of the Commission. FTAs apply to all EU countries or none.

And imagine the utter chaos that would ensue if we simply repealed the ECA and left. The pound would quickly reach parity with the penny and the nation as we know it would probably collapse. This is the kind of nutter who was head of the CBI for years.

We run a huge trade deficit in goods with Europe but he doesn't ask himself why that is. He recognises in his speech the need for better education, more investment and so on but he doesn't explain why France and Germany and Italy can educate and invest inside the EU but somehow we can't and must leave. It isn't rational and neither is he.