As I wrote yesterday, the delegation going to Brussels today including Steven Wolfe, Lord Digby-Jones and John Longworth are going to be mightily disappointed with this article HERE by Peter Foster, The Telegraph's Europe Editor. He says Brussels will not be impressed with Mrs May's plan to appoint a minister (said to be the utterly egregious Steve Baker) for a no deal Brexit.
The EU knows this is an empty threat. Foster confirms what most people already know and that is any deal is better than no deal.
And as he says the £40 billion divorce bill will be legally watertight as well as being mostly paid by the time negotiations will start in detail on the trade deal. There is no chance of using this as leverage.
He also poured cold water on David Davis' suggestion that if we walk away the EU will be willing to be reasonable and give us a series of mini deals on aviation and the like. We will have left them with a £10 billion budget headache so they may not be willing to be reasonable at all.
Foster thinks we will get a basic Canada style trade deal without services and this will be dressed up here as a great negotiating success and I think he is exactly right. Why would the EU, especially the net contributor nations, give us privileged or special access to the internal market as it grows in wealth and power in the coming years, built on their contributions?
In fact, isn't Brexit really just a huge gamble? If the EU does fail then Brexit will be proved to be a good decision. But let's also imagine the opposite and far more likely scenario where it grows consistently and strongly while China and the Far East undergo a series of economic setbacks. China is not democratic, has enormous debts and is not always transparent about its monetary and financial well being. Who knows what may happen?
Brexiteers have rolled the die with the nation's future but the odds are stacked against them.
