Saturday, 10 February 2018

BORDERS ARE FRICTIONLESS - NOT THE NEGOTIATIONS

The Politico website (HERE) reports some friction is entering the negotiations with the UK accusing the EU of not wanting to speed things up. Considering we called an election last year and struggled to get past "sufficient progress" by December this is a bit rich. However, it's clear there are serious disagreements on the transition, although you would think we would have our eyes on the long term trade agreement and the Irish border issue rather than picking faults in the terms of a temporary transition period. Does it really matter? 

This all smacks of the British exceptionalism syndrome. We can't seem to let any tiny perceived slight pass and have an irrational need to look like we have come out on top whatever the circumstances.

The Irish border issue is reaching it's denouement. The EU are drafting the legal text with the only option known to work, regulatory alignment between north and south and more or less challenging the UK to come up with other workable solutions before December 2020, or whenever the transition period ends. Given that nobody can see how anything else is remotely possible - or acceptable to the EU27 - we may end up remaining in the customs union and the single market for a very long time. 

You can tell how desperate things have got by a demonstration of Olympic quality straw clutching at  The Telegraph which has taken to pitching in hopeful ideas (HERE) about opting for the high tech Canadian/US border solution in Ireland. When the experts can't find an answer let the amateurs have a go! It's like the bloke who turns up late to a meeting and then suggests ideas that were discarded before he arrived - everybody smiles politely but thinks what a *****.

And talking of desperation, Barnier has even been forced to deny he's conducting parallel negotiations with Jeremy Corbyn (HERE). Are the Brexiteers that worried?

I note also the last part of the Politico article where an EU diplomat is reported as saying the March 23rd deadline for agreeing the transition looks "ambitious". This may be an attempt to put pressure on the UK but it may also be true. Business and the banks are desperate to see the transition period settled and there will be some who simply cannot wait any longer. 

The other contentious item is the EU seeking the right to restrict access to the internal market if we fail to comply with the union acquis (HERE) . Davis is miffed by this.

In a statement issued on Friday afternoon after Mr Barnier’s press conference Davis said the EU could not “have it both ways” on the transition period.

“Given the intense work that has taken place this week it is surprising to hear that Michel Barnier is unclear on the UK’s position in relation to the implementation period,” he said. “As I set out in a speech two weeks ago, we are seeking a time-limited period that maintains access to each other’s markets on existing terms. 

“However for any such period to work both sides will need a way to resolve disputes in the unlikely event that they occur. 

But there is a fundamental contradiction in the approach the commission is taking. Today they acknowledged that a way to resolve disputes and infringements is needed. Yet at the same time they dismissed the UK’s push for reasonable safeguards to ensure our interests are protected. It is not possible to have it both ways.

What he forgets is that it is the UK who asked for the transition period. If we don't like the conditions set by the EU we can always refuse to accept any transition and simply leave on March 29th next year. We don't have a choice of several internal markets where they are all offering us something different in order to attract us. There is just one. The EU are happy to allow us access on membership terms for a limited period. It is their market. They are under no obligation. If Davis is unhappy, why doesn't he insist on a similar clause giving us the right to restrict their access to our market?

And he's surprised that Barnier is not clear about "our position" on what he continues to refer to as an "implementation" period. One is tempted to say beggars cannot be choosers.

We still think we are negotiating as equals. A spokesman for the government says this is a "negotiation" and presumably some people believe it is. I heard IDS call it a negotiation on Channel 4 tonight. The EU will no doubt roll their eyes. There is no negotiation. Take it or leave it.

The nation is moving inexorably towards the cliff edge. Those urging us to jump have belatedly realised that we risk serious injury and have asked for parachutes. Parachutes have been offered but now we are quibbling over the price and some minor details on the pack like the rip cord colour.

I note the pound reacted badly to the news that the transition period might be in doubt. 

Richard Tice of Leave means Leave was on Channel 4 tonight, highly agitated and critical of George Soros for being foreign born and contributing to the remain cause. How dare he? Tice was quite happy to leave next year on WTO terms, but then he doesn't work at a car factory in Sunderland does he? 

This is the problem for Theresa May. In one ear the CBI, the BCC and Japanese mega businesses, experts, people who really know their stuff, are warning about the consequences of leaving the customs union and the single market. In the other ear are idiots like Richard Tice. Who does she listen to? Why Richard Tice of course!