This is a fascinating article (HERE) about the negotiations at the moment. Politico suggests there is an element of neither side understanding the other, particularly in relation to the customs union. The EU apparently have always believed the UK will reverse its position on withdrawing from the customs union, simply because of the economic damage that it would inflict on us. They are therefore waiting for Mrs May to do a U turn. On this side, we think the EU are trying to "ramp up" the pressure to force us to remain in the CU, something British officials say we aren't going to do.
This is dangerous brinkmanship, on both sides. To quote from the article:
Having folded on the Brexit bill in Phase 1, Brussels believes it is only a matter of time before May backs down again. To honor its commitment to an invisible border in Ireland, Brussels believes the U.K. will have to give way on customs.
But, if Brussels does not believe London, the feeling is mutual.
To the EU27 this is a demand for a cherry-picked special deal that is not on the table. It calculates the U.K. won’t risk leaving the EU without agreeing a withdrawal treaty that provides an orderly exit, including a transition period needed to prevent what many fear would be a potentially major shock to the British economy.
But things look different from London. One senior U.K. official said Brussels was simply playing a game, ramping up pressure on Britain to change its position despite clear indications from the U.K. that this was not an option.
The UK government has a problem on this. The cabinet is divided and there is no majority in parliament, so I understand, for coming out of the CU. The CBI is campaigning to stay in. And about two thirds of the population think we need to keep strong trading links with the EU (HERE). The Irish border problem cannot easily be resolved outside a CU if at all. It is only the hard Brexiteers who through dogma and ideology want to cut all ties with our largest trading partner.
I think the most important thing Barnier said was that it is time to choose. Do we have a close partnership or not? We have until Friday apparently.
I should say that nothing has really changed. Barnier asking for more clarity and Davis saying the UK's position was perfectly clear. We are still in the hall of mirrors where nothing is as it seems.
Barnier was clear about one thing. If we leave the customs union and the single market "there will be barriers" as the BBC report HERE. What business will make of this I don't know but he could not be accused of obfuscation.
Another point that Barnier made in his official statement (HERE) has gone unnoticed by the media, but he says "certainty" will only come after the withdrawal agreement has been ratified. This won't come until the autumn I would have thought and means companies and airlines will not have total legal certainty for many months yet. We may well find caveats when we book flights for 2019 that the flight is not guaranteed.
And if you are looking at a big investment you may well want to hang on until there is a ratified treaty in place.
And if you are looking at a big investment you may well want to hang on until there is a ratified treaty in place.
