The Sunday Times has got hold of a leaked government report on the impact of a no-deal Brexit - reported HERE by The Independent. They looked at three different scenarios for possible Brexit outcomes – one mild, one severe and one they have called 'Armageddon'. The Sunday Times was told : "In the second worst scenario, not even the worst, the port of Dover will collapse on day one and supermarkets in Cornwall and Scotland will run out of food within a couple of days, and hospitals will run out of medicines within two weeks."
Not surprisingly, it has all been played down by Ministers, with the Home Secretary apparently saying he didn't "recognise" the report. Jacob Rees-Mogg has dismissed it as "project fear on speed" (HERE).
I don't believe Armageddon or indeed even the second worst scenario is likely. This is why governments plan for the future. No administration could survive serious food shortages in an advanced economy like ours. Emergency steps would be taken to avoid the worst of it - even if this means the most humiliating of climb downs and begging the EU for an extension - which they would grant with strings attached. This is the point. Both sides know we are in a weak position.
There may well be some disruption to supplies but we aren't going to starve. But this really is not the issue.
There may well be some disruption to supplies but we aren't going to starve. But this really is not the issue.
This letter writer in The Telegraph (HERE) unwittingly reveals the problem, "We have made concession after concession and received nothing in return. The EU has maintained the same position since the start, expecting us to succumb to its bullying and remain in the club. In the negotiations so far, we have shown our weakness and the EU has milked it for all it’s worth".
The potential outcome of a no-deal scenario is so cataclysmic the UK government has already been forced to make "concession after concession" and they will make many more (and bigger ones) as time goes on towards the deadline. This is the inevitable and totally foreseeable result of being the smaller partner in a negotiation with 27 other countries.
The plan apparently, in the event of no-deal is to just carry on as before! According to the report, David Davis has been pleading with the port authorities in Calais and Antwerp to "tell their central governments that goods must keep flowing". A senior UK official says, "We are entirely dependent on Europe reciprocating our posture that we will do nothing to impede the flow of goods into the UK. If for whatever reason, Europe decides to slow that supply down, then we're screwed". This is what taking back control looks like - becoming "entirely dependent" as if we're a bedridden relative with dementia.
Note the official is talking about EU exports to the UK. But he doesn't address the question of UK exports to Europe. They will certainly be impeded and since trucks tend to make return journeys, within a day or two, they will be stuck in the queue waiting to get to Calais. And of course, we can't use air freight because planes will have no legal right to fly - unless we beg to get a some sort of interim, emergency extension of our EASA/Open Skies agreement.
The EU started out with all the cards. Since March 2017 when we triggered Article 50 they have acquired more and more. This is the problem.
The pro-Brexit MP Ann-Marie Trevelyan (HERE) said, "It made me laugh when I read The Times article yesterday".
The pro-Brexit MP Ann-Marie Trevelyan (HERE) said, "It made me laugh when I read The Times article yesterday".
