Friday, 8 June 2018

BREXIT - A SURREAL DISASTER

As support for Brexit slowly ebbs away among the populace, even the most enthusiastic pro Brexit press is beginning to publish articles hinting that not all is well with the negotiations. First, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has an article (HERE - paywall) in The Telegraph proclaiming: Weep for Brexit, the British dash for independence has failed. Then Peter Foster, the Telegraph's Europe editor, has an article (HERE - no paywall) shot through with the utter despair felt in diplomatic circles and in Brussels at the surreal nature of the negotiations and of Mrs May herself.

Foster says the negotiations are essentially moribund. There is nothing happening in Brussels as Barnier and his team look on at the bizarre machinations in Westminster with bemusement. Listen to this:

"Privately British officials ask themselves the same thing, devoid as they are of any political mandate. EU diplomats describe Olly Robbins, Britain’s top Brexit official, as an increasingly lost soul who comes to Europe only to float ideas that will not fly".

"Mrs May herself is an object of continued frustration, as unable to communicate with fellow European leaders as with her own party and the British electorate. Officials from three countries separately described her private one-to-one conversations with other EU leaders as disastrous. “They are empty to the point of being insulting,” said one.

“How can you stop something that is not moving?” asks one top EU diplomat. “What can we do? The British backstop paper, when it gets delivered, will be read, but it will not say enough to make the EU reappraise our position. Perhaps there will not even be enough for a Brexit discussion at the summit. Who knows?” 

The iceberg is ahead and the band is still playing, but for now there is no plan to avoid what we can see.” 

So the June deadline is set to come and go. The summer holidays will be upon us – and the clock still ticks. “We can only assume that something this stupid and self-inflicted cannot really happen,” concludes one senior EU negotiator.

Worryingly, many officials in Whitehall are saying precisely the same thing.

The description of how Mrs May is seen in Europe is matched by comments this morning on the BBC from sources close to president Trump saying he's unhappy with the school mistress style that May has during their telephone conversations. This chimes with how she comes across in interviews, offering childishly simple comments that everyone can see are totally vacuous but delivered as if they're pearls of wisdom.

The bigger picture for me is that the end date is still fixed, solid and squarely in our path. As things stand we are legally OUT on March 29th next year. The course was set when Article 50 was triggered. The problem with the talks being moribund is that the work needed to be done before we leave, remains exactly the same as before but the time available continues to tick down. The task looked pretty insurmountable when we started and had two years to do it, now it seems impossible. Sooner or later the government is going to be overwhelmed by the task.

Wolfgang Schauble, the former German Finance minister, says the EU 27 would grant an extension to the Article 50 period if we asked (HERE) but Brexiteers would sooner rip their own heads off than beg for more time and it would probably come with a price too.

As time goes on, and speaking as a dedicated remoaner, I must say I am happier than I have been for a long time. Surely, there must come a point when leavers survey the smoking wreckage of the hopes and dreams they had for Brexit and begin to conclude it may not have been our finest hour? And then we are only a second referendum away from ending the nightmare.