With the Brexit negotiations you sometimes get the impression of watching two separate dramas going on with nothing connecting them. Here, an increasingly fractious cabinet tries to reach a common position as anxious industry lobby groups begin to shout louder and louder from the wings. Meanwhile, Brussels continue to coolly issue notices and advice to stakeholders (the latest from the Medicines Agency HERE) as they prepare for the UK to exit without a deal.
We are involved in the most important negotiation ever undertaken by this country but you wouldn't know it. The Irish border blog HERE talking about the current state of play, says, "a critic famously wrote about Samuel Beckett’s Waiting for Godot that 'nothing happened, twice'. That is pretty much what has been happening in the Brexit debate for the last couple of months". "There is absolutely nothing of significance happening between the UK and the EU".
I am afraid this is absolutely and humiliatingly right.
Now EU leaders are apparently becoming exasperated with us (HERE). Bulgaria holds the presidency of the EU Council, and its foreign affairs minister Ekaterina Zaharieva said: “We need to find solutions to all remaining issues in a timely manner and in full respect of commitments taken so far. Regarding the framework for the future relationship, we need realistic and workable proposals from the UK as regards its position. The work on preparedness at all levels and for all outcomes must be stepped up.”
But then, as if to demonstrate beyond doubt that the two sides are engaging in parallel, but entirely unconnected negotiations, a government spokesman in reply said:
“We have put forward workable proposals to the EU on a range of areas from the backstop to security, and the White Paper, which will be published after June Council, will continue to drive this process forward. We can make progress if both the EU and UK engage constructively.”
This is descending into playground farce and the "we've done this", and "no you haven't argument". No doubt a bit of pushing and shoving will follow the sticking out of tongues.
But while nothing is happening in Brussels Channel 4's Gary Gibbon is reporting (HERE) the white paper to be discussed and agreed by the full cabinet on 6th July is "taking shape". This is to establish the basis for our future relationship - note: fifteen months after negotiations started - whether we stay close to the EU or not. And if you can manage not to laugh, listen to this:
"Ministers were told that after the European Council next week and factoring in Brussels summer holidays, there are now only 'six weeks left' of negotiating time before the October summit at which negotiations are meant to be concluded. Ministers at this briefing came away with a real sense that 'time is running out,' one present told me"
Time is running out! You don't say!
Gibbon reports that the draft white paper contains "options" so that Olly Robbins our lead negotiator gets "ministerial licence to pursue a series of approaches ranging from a Norway-style rule-taking approach to those with more sovereignty but less access to EU markets. There’s bound to be suspicion that only one of these approaches – the one outlining what is effectively a Norway style approach with the UK in the single market for manufactured goods and agricultural goods – is the one the EU27 would be most likely to engage with".
This rather sounds like the cabinet, unable to reach an agreement among themselves, are to give Olly Robbins all the possible options and let him decide. Our democratic representatives have sub-contracted the greatest decision of our time to a civil servant, let him take the blame.
Gibbon concludes:
But if Mr Robbins gets his way next week and the White Paper options as currently drafted pass, if he’s right too on the EU27 appetite for negotiation on this basis, then by the time the EU has engaged with the most Norway-like of the options in the White Paper we will already be sliding closer to the exit date. The scope for re-thinking the UK approach without moving the exit date will be limited. The chances of moving that date are unknowable and the risks, if you’re a Brexiteer, might alarm.
If Johnson and Fox accept this I would be stunned. I assume the Norway option means being out of the customs union (hard border in Ireland, delays in Dover, etc) but accepting most if not all the regulatory rules from Brussels in both goods and services albeit with some limited influence over them (partial vassal state). It would also possibly include freedom of movement.
This may or may not be right but if it is, the sales pitch from May and Davis to Rees-Mogg, Duncan Smith, et all, will be a wonder to behold.
