Much talk and speculation last night and this morning about the cabinet Brexiteers plotting their response to May's third way proposals to be decided today at Chequers. A meeting was held at the Foreign Office last night so the pro Brexit faction, led by BoJo, could decide collectively what to do about her soft Brexit idea - before the EU formally reject it that is.
The problem for the Brexiteers is simply this. Essentially, they are saying the warnings of business in the form of the CBI, the BCC, the IoD, the EEF as well as the aviation trade body ADS, Airbus, Rolls Royce, JLR and so on, are just scaremongering. It's a gamble isn't it. Brexiteers say we must leave the SM and the CU while business want us to remain or at the least enjoy all the benefits of it.
If Brexiteers get their way, call the bluff of big business and go for a CETA style trade deal what will businesses do? Perhaps they won't do anything and will simply carry on and manage the situation as best they can. But what if, when they learn we are aiming for a straight free trade deal and will definitely leave the SM and the CU, they announce plans to move production in the long term away from the UK? What if Airbus announced plans to build wings in Germany or France?
The Brexiteers need to think this through because under those circumstances, they will have to decide whether to back pedal or press on regardless, perhaps with the risk of more companies following.
A Volte face would make them appear weak with accusations that Brexit is being thwarted by big business. But job losses, clearly and unequivocally due to Brexit, particularly high skill, high pay jobs, would be electorally damaging to the Tories as well as cutting government revenues. With the added risk that the companies may not reverse their decisions to move anyway. In which case, they will have all the negative consequences with nothing to show in return.
It may all sound ridiculous to we remainers but I wouldn't assume any of the cabinet Brexiteers are rational people. We may learn something later today or tomorrow, but don't hold your breath.
