Theresa May has written this letter HERE to all Conservative MPs, in an attempt to "sell" the chequers proposal to the many hard Eurosceptics in her party. There is an implicit recognition that the EU won't accept it as things stands and she quotes the 2017 Tory manifesto, ‘the negotiations will undoubtedly be tough, and there will be give and take on both sides’. But it's unlikely the proposals in their entirety will survive contact with the EU negotiators.
To avoid toppling her before October at least, the EU are likely to string it out by waiting for the more detailed white paper to be published and then taking time to study the 100 page document. But reject it they will, trust me.
I note in her letter though Mrs May is still strolling through the La La Land cherry orchard, behaving as if we will still be a member after we've left.
"There may be specific European programmes in which we might want to participate and if so, it will be reasonable that we make a contribution".
Barnier said last week the EU isn't a supermarket that you can browse but Theresa May clearly thinks it is. There is still this idea that we can pick and choose what we want to be part of and no doubt we will also set the price!! She goes on:
"The EU’s position implies that two models of relationship are currently available to the United Kingdom. Neither works.
"The first is a standard Free Trade Agreement for Great Britain [...] This is unacceptable to us as Unionists. The second would, effectively, be membership of the EEA and the Customs Union. This would not deliver on the referendum result.
"So we need to shift the EU to consider a third model. And this new model must provide for the friction-free movement of goods, because that is the only way to avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland and between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, and to protect jobs across the United Kingdom that depend on just-in-time supply chains".
Last December, Michel Barnier (HERE) could not have been clearer that this is simply not on the table. He said: “They [the UK] have to realise there won’t be any cherry picking. We won’t mix up the various scenarios to create a specific one and accommodate their wishes, mixing, for instance, the advantages of the Norwegian model [the EEA], member of the single market, with the simple requirements of the Canadian one [the standard free trade agreement]".
The British government obviously doesn't read or follow what he says because Mrs May's latest proposal, agreed among the cabinet at Chequers last Friday, is for a "specific" scenario to "accommodate" our wishes. There is nothing between the Norwegian model and the Canadian model and the EU are unwilling to create one and who can blame them?
As this piece HERE argues, the EU will probably say you want a UK-EU free trade area? Well, “One already exists. It’s called the European Union and you’re on the way out. And if you don’t like that you can follow Norway’s example and stay in the European Economic Area – but if you don’t want that, or even a Turkey-style customs union, good luck with trying to negotiate a free trade deal with President Trump.”
Quite apart from the fact that Theresa May herself ruled out cherry picking in her own Article 50 letter, Barnier makes absolutely clear this "mixing up" of model relationships that the EU have with third countries is not going to happen because it can't happen. It would open up the EU to renegotiating every one of their other models as all other third countries demand the same treatment.
One imagines the EU must be getting really exasperated with May. No matter how many times they say something, how carefully they explain things, she blithely ignores them. How they must wish for someone sane to be in charge.
