Sunday 8 July 2018

WHO WILL DO THE POLISHING?

Laura Kuenssberg at the BBC HERE explains a bit of the background to the Chequers meeting and claims cabinet ministers received several papers last week. One explained a CETA Type Free Trade Agreement wouldn't work because it wouldn't prevent a hard border in Ireland (true) and another said a no deal outcome would be such a catastrophe that the Tories would be out of power for a generation (also true). 

But on an EEA agreement we are just told it wouldn't work, full stop. No explanation why.  The only reason seems to be is that the PM has ruled it out - for the moment anyway - and this may be significant later on.

It is also being claimed that last week Gove ripped up part of the third way proposal in front of civil servants (HERE) while other newspapers are reporting that BoJo, ever the diplomat, said at last Friday's meeting that anybody defending the plan (the one he's just signed up to) would be "polishing a turd" (HERE).

Both of these nutters and Davis who has reportedly called the plan "unworkable" will be interviewed in the next few weeks and they will have to defend the proposal - or resign. I wonder which of these cabinet Brexiteers will be the first to refuse to pick up the duster and start polishing?

What will be interesting is if the paper setting out the consequences of no-deal is leaked. If the result is forecast to be as catastrophic as Whitehall thinks it will be, BoJo et al will have to explain what the alternative is. Remember, the civil service has now had two years to model the potentially massive problems arising from a failure to reach an agreement and business is becoming increasingly vocal. The paper cannot easily be dismissed as scaremongering or project fear 3.0 or whatever.

This is crucial because it will expose the hollowness of Brexiteer's suggestions that we can walk away from the talks. Once you accept this premise, it's clear we are in a very weak position and will eventually have to accept whatever the EU offer.