The government has published the 24 technical notices (HERE) plus an overview paper with what is suppose to be detailed guidance in the event that we leave without a deal. Publication is already being greeted with a mixture of relief, surprise, puzzlement and anger. Some of the notices seem to be simply statements of the obvious and in the main they deal with the easiest and least contentious issues.
Is anybody really concerned about the advertising on cigarette packets? Or even a tiny increase in credit card charges? One of the notices talks of organic food exports to the EU - an almost insignificant industry. The food industry has been quick to comment (HERE). The website Food Manufacture said, "The publication of technical notices to prepare the UK for a potential no-deal Brexit have been met with hostility by trade associations and unions, which have criticised the Government for presenting a “grisly prospect” that showed “utter contempt” for the British public"
"These issues apply far more widely than just organic food - any UK food that currently displays EU marks or logos will be in the same boat"
As for food imports there isn't much at all. And a few weeks ago when stockpiling of medicines was mentioned, it was all "scaremongering". Well, now it's official government policy with pharmaceutical companies advised to keep 6 weeks more than their normal stock. If this applies to medicines what about food?
The Britsh International Freight Association has also slammed the advice (HERE):
“As most of the visible trade that takes place between the EU and the UK is managed by freight forwarders and logistics professionals on behalf of traders, some of the content of the information could be considered rather patronising as those freight forwarders are already aware of many of the issues of concern to businesses trading with the EU in the event of no deal, says Robert Keen, BIFA director general Robert Keen.
“What BIFA members actually need is clarity on the arrangements that will be in place in the event of a no-deal scenario". Well they didn't get any of that yesterday.
The paper on civil nuclear regulation, under "Actions for businesses and other stakeholders" talks of some existing contracts needing to be re-approved and says, "We will continue to work with the UK operators concerned to ensure that appropriate contingency supply arrangements are in place". Err.. what are these arrangements? There is no detail.
Raab is selling them as a way of ensuring things continue to function "smoothly" in the event we leave without a deal next March. I assume the difficult edges have all been removed or watered down and the immediate reaction will be to make no deal look risky but acceptable. He has started with the easiest issues to deal with. Within a day or two, when business and local government and the pro EU press have gone through them, they will begin to fall apart.
Other papers are due to be released by the end of September. I assume these will start to deal with more difficult sectors like aviation, food, chemicals and road transport around the ports. But this will give even less time to prepare for the most difficult issues.
Keir Starmer, the opposition Brexit spokesman on the radio this morning, made the point that everybody says it will take years to transition from what we have now, even if we get a deal. To expect this to happen smoothly overnight if there isn't a deal seems fantastic. But we shall see the impact the technical notices have on public opinion, already showing support for a softening of Brexit, in the coming weeks.
The Daily Express, ever reliable in backing the Brexit cause, said (HERE):
Speaking to the Today programme ahead of a key speech, the Tory frontbencher [Dominic Raab] said: "There is an irony in this debate because some of those promoting the worst scare stories around no deal, making the case at the eleventh hour to call off Brexit, are relying on the fact that they say or they assume the EU will behave in a vindictive way. I fear that’s the Achilles' heel of the latest incarnation of Project Fear by admittedly a rather small and dwindling number of those trying to frustrate Brexit."
Raab doesn't seem to realise the EU won't be vindictive, they will treat us as we voted to be treated - as a third country.
ITV report it HERE and no doubt in the next few days, as the news outlets begin to go through all the details, we will get expert reaction to the papers that are now in the public domain.
