Brexit is a huge constitutional gamble by the Conservative party, nowhere more so than in Northern Ireland and Scotland. NI voted 56% to remain and Scotland was even more pro EU at 62%. According to recent polls, NI is now about 69% remain and Scotland is 66% . It's just about conceivable that if Brexit was a clear, quick and unequivocal success, the Conservatives might be able to sell it to what seems like two highly sceptical provinces. But this looks like an increasingly long shot.
Jacob Rees-Mogg said the benefits of Brexit would be seen over the next 50 years. I would be amazed if he's got ten - maximum.
The Scots and Irish nationalists are not like the Russians, living under a police state and listening for decades to ever more unbelievable forecasts of jam just about to arrive next week.
In England and perhaps Wales, where there was at least a majority to leave they might, with a lot of luck, be able to keep it going for a few years. But as things look now the opportunities of Brexit will be a long time coming. The arguments will not be settled any time soon. It's hard to see Brexiteers ever getting behind a single vision let alone leavers and remainers coming together. The divisions will go on and on.
If there was a substantial majority for Brexit, it's not impossible to imagine a sort of camaraderie developing out of any adversity. A nation might muddle through all sorts of difficulties by working together against a common foe. But when half the populace sympathises with the so-called foe, there can only be more division. And if the majority see the foe as friends it's very hard to see the union surviving Brexit.
The Brexiteers are ideologues not pragmatists. Brexit is ideological, a matter of faith, and doesn't see any of the practical problems. Brexiteers have transcended conservatism and put the survival of the union on the spin of a roulette wheel.
