We are perhaps looking at the final act in the European psychodrama that has bedevilled the Conservative party for decades, always simmering just below the surface like a rumbling volcano. Mrs May has written to every member - at a reputed cost of £70,000 - to ask them to back her Chequers plan, the one the EU have already said is unacceptable. Conservative Home has published the letter (HERE). Suffice to say it has not gone down well. A few plumes of smoke are drifting ominously above the rim.
To give you some idea just how badly things are going, City AM (HERE) are reporting a rebellion is being plotted for the party conference in October. They say, "Tory associations are mulling action including withdrawing long-standing loans to party HQ in response to May’s perceived failure to deliver on the Brexit vote, with many grassroots members at odds with her Chequers plan".
Mrs May, set a task that makes the twelve labours of Hercules look like a doddle, must feel like a salesman hawking the result of her own two year labours from door to door and seeing rejection and failure at every one.
I won't quote the entire letter here since it's a tired repetition of all the old arguments that have fallen flat so far, but this is the key bit:
"However, our negotiations on our future relationship have reached an impasse. The two options on offer from the EU at the moment are not acceptable to me, or to the United Kingdom.
"The first, a standard free trade agreement for Great Britain – with Northern Ireland staying in the customs union and parts of the single market – would break up the UK. As a proud Unionist, I am very clear that it would be unacceptable.
"And the second, membership of the customs union plus an extended version of the European Economic Area (EEA), would mean free movement, vast annual payments and alignment with EU rules across the whole of our economy, which would not be consistent with the referendum result".
And
This vision for our future relationship with the EU will be very challenging for the EU – it is in no sense a concession to their demands. I have been very clear that we are rejecting the two models they have put forward. Instead, we are asking them to accept a bespoke model which meets the unique requirements of the United Kingdom.
It's hard to see where the common ground will be found. The EU have suggested two options we reject. And the EU cannot accept our alternative proposal at all. The differences are stark. But they have little if any flexibility. To accept the Chequers plan would open a Pandora's box that would set the EU on a path of renegotiating agreements with just about every other major country with whom they have an existing FTA or bilateral deal. It would bog them down for years and years.
The only possible outcomes are no deal or capitulation by the UK. The money markets seemed to see the chances of a no deal outcome as increasingly likely and the pound sank to a year low yesterday against the euro, the dollar and other currencies.
So, there is a big split between the leadership and the grassroots. The party itself is split with Dominic Grieve, the former Attorney General, saying he would leave the party (HERE) if BoJo ever became leader and I don't think he would be alone. Remember, BoJo has barely concealed leadership ambitions and was recently voted favourite to replace May by party members. Meanwhile Nadine Dorries defends the fat fraud (HERE) over his recent newspaper article about Muslim women who wear Burkas.
The differences between the pro and anti European factions has grown so unbelievably toxic and explosive that it's hard to see the party ever becoming united again.
UKIP has seen a resurgence in membership which is going to damage the electoral chances of the party at the next election and would bring us back full circle to the very same problem that Cameron was faced with in 2010 and which the promise of a referendum was supposed to resolve.
Brexit would be difficult enough for a united party with a clear majority in both Houses of Parliament. It is a mammoth task. But the Tories are pressing on with the biggest constitutional change ever undertaken and with a fractious, argumentative parliamentary party, the grassroots at loggerheads with the leadership, no coherent vision or plan and no majority in either house. It has alienated the very partners in the EU we are trying to negotiate with and exasperated business, Whitehall and local government in the process. If you were going to plan for a disaster this is how you would start.
How can it not go wrong?
