Professor David Paton has another "rearguard" article (HERE) ridiculing the remoaners for scaremongering about no deal. He says we should prepare for it to get the best possible deal. He is professor of Industrial Economics at Nottingham University Business School and a member of Economists for Free Trade, along with the nutter Patrick Minford.
He says that "The WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement forbids unnecessary customs delays", and also that, "the Head of the WTO has been clear that Brexit will not cause disruption in trade". This is precisely the same argument used by Peter Lilley in The Times earlier this week (HERE) who said, "the new trade facilitation treaty which commits members to facilitate trade not obstruct it".
The TFA (HERE) was adopted by the WTO in 2014 and Britain ratified it in October 2015. It is intended to help developing and least developed countries reduce the cost of border and customs checks. It talks about customs checks that can involve multiple documents and take between 6 and 86 days for exports and 4 - 130 days for imports. Dover would be seen as ultra facilitated anyway when non-EU imports are handled in between 5 and 45 minutes. But this would destroy Dover for EU trade.
Dover District Council's report (HERE) makes clear that intra EU trade accounts for 99% of Dover's freight traffic (see paragraph 3.3). They paint a very different picture to that of Peter Lilley and David Paton of what would happen in a no deal scenario - with traffic backing up 17 miles if delays were increased by just 2 minutes per vehicle (see paragraph 3.8). Remember this is all under the Facilitated Trade Agreement. Dover port officials know exactly how long non-EU freight takes compared to intra-EU freight. They have a daily working knowledge of the two regimes and know what will happen when the 1% becomes 100%. It is a disaster for them.
But Paton and Lilley continue to argue it will all be alright when the people at the sharp end say it won't - amazing.
And the head of the WTO didn't say Brexit will "not cause disruption to trade". Roberto Azevedo actually said (HERE) “So it’s true it’s not going to be the end of the world but it’s not going to be a walk in the park either. It is going to be a bumpy road. How bumpy it’s going to be will depend on many things including on the outcome of the negotiations with the EU.”
Nobody is claiming Brexit will be the end of the world. But it will not be easy or good.
