Thursday, 18 October 2018

MAY STILL IN THE BREXIT QUAGMIRE

Theresa May addressed the other EU leaders last night and it was all sweetness and light with everyone trying desperately not to upset her and send her into another uncontrollable rage. But she didn't offer anything new (HERE) or "concrete" in Donald Tusk's words. Antonio Tajani, leader of the EU parliament said her tone was of someone who wanted to reach a deal, but he added that the content was "not yet acceptable". It looks like they were trying to humour the PM and she was trying to wear them down by sticking to the deal, aka Chequers, hoping that sooner or later they all collapse with the sheer exhaustion. 

The one thing that has reappeared is a possible 12 months extension to the transition period (HERE) something we were told the other day Mrs May had rejected because of the cost (HERE). It's amazing what you can justify to yourself when your back's against the wall isn't it?  However, this morning the backlash is beginning since as we already knew, the ultras will never accept it (HERE).

The quagmire of Brexit is sucking her deeper and deeper in. Eventually, she will have to pulled clear by winch.

At the moment it doesn't look like the EU will schedule another summit for November so it looks like December before any deal is finalised and it means even more uncertainty, less time for the UK or EU parliaments to scrutinise the text and perhaps amend things.

In the meantime, Raab has circulated a memo which suggests the deal (assuming there is one) will be put to parliament and will not be amendable (HERE). It will essentially be a take-it-or-leave-it vote. MPs on both sides of the argument will be furious with this. It can hardly be said to be a meaningful vote. Raab says the vote must be "unequivocal" (HERE) but it sounds like he wants one of the old soviet ballots where there was only one candidate on the ballot paper and the communists regularly got 100% of the vote.

Bercow, the Commons speaker, could be absolutely crucial in all this because he makes the decision on whether or not a bill can be amended. He is hated by many Conservative MPs and I think the feeling is mutual. After the report on bullying released on Monday, many MPs want him to step down since they see him as the bully's bully. He has "made it known" that he intends to go next summer but I wouldn't bet against him trying to thwart government plans to force it through the House. This would be typical John Bercow - he is, for all his many faults, a friend of back benchers and I cannot see him supporting the government. He has an anti-Brexit bumper sticker which makes the Brexiteers suspect his motives.

This seems all of a piece with the referendum campaign itself. Shabby, chaotic, amateurish and utterly ridiculous. The craziest way ever known to make yourself poorer.