Sir John Major has used a lecture given at the Foreign Office to launch an attack on Brexit and the Brexiteers (HERE). It's a thoughtful but typically hard-hitting speech with some memorable lines that should make some on the extreme fringes of the Tory party think twice but won't. Some of "the bastards" are still MPs and they have absolutely no respect for him whatsoever. The full speech is HERE.
He touches on some of the wider geopolitical impacts of Brexit that few people know of and even less think about, but they are the sorts of things that have a habit of sneaking up slowly and only becoming clear when it's far too late to do anything about it.
A few extracts....
On government:
"It involves choices between competition and compassion; between young and old; or between the component parts of our (currently not very) United Kingdom. Sometimes, the choices are straightforward but, all too often, they can be hideously complex.
"What Government is not about is cheap grandstanding. It’s not about deceiving the electorate with slogans, or soundbites, or untruths or half-truths. It’s not about windy oratory that says nothing. It’s not about simplistic solutions to intricate problems. It’s not about scapegoating one part of our population to earn the plaudits of another".
On the special relationship:
"Until now, every US President I have known has considered our relevance to America to be enhanced by our membership of the European Union. Yet very soon – on our current course – we will no longer be able to argue from within the EU for Anglo-American beliefs in free trade; open markets; and strong defence.
"Our value – as an ally of America – will decline. Our friends, the Americans, are hard-headed about power. It is romantic folly to think otherwise. Be in no doubt – if the UK can no longer serve America’s interests in Europe, she will look elsewhere for someone who can".
On global Britain:
"We are told our future aim is to be “Global Britain”: that is certainly the right policy, but it is hardly new. It has been the reality for 300 years.
"What is new is that much of the world will now perceive Britain to be a middle-sized, middle-ranking nation that is no longer super-charged by its alliances. Suddenly, the world will be a little chillier".
On Brexit:
"We know the post-Brexit world will be very different from now. It cannot be otherwise, because no form of Brexit will remotely match up to the promises made by the Leave Campaign in the referendum: they were vote-gathering fantasies, not serious politics".
"Nonetheless, after weighing its frustrations and opportunities, there is no doubt in my own mind that our decision is a colossal misjudgement that will diminish both the UK and the EU".
"Nonetheless, after weighing its frustrations and opportunities, there is no doubt in my own mind that our decision is a colossal misjudgement that will diminish both the UK and the EU".
"It will damage our national and personal wealth, and may seriously hamper our future security. It may even, over time, break up our United Kingdom. It will most definitely limit the prospects of our young".
On Brexiteers:
"And – once this becomes clear – I believe those who promised what will never be delivered will have much to answer for. They persuaded a deceived population to vote to be weaker and poorer".
"That will never be forgotten – nor forgiven".
On foreign affairs:
"We live at a time when America is showing withdrawal symptoms, and China is growing in economic, political and military power. Whenever the US leaves a vacuum around the world, it will be filled by China, or Russia, or regional players".
"The fundamental point is simple: if America withdraws from international obligations, then Europe can best protect her own interests if she is united".
"It is easy to demonstrate why this is so. When China joined the WTO [in 2001], it was hoped she would conform to accepted trade practices. Thus far, she has not".
"Instead, the evidence suggests that she still appropriates other countries’ intellectual property; forces technology transfer; closes out competitors’ investment to favour her domestic – often state-run – industries; and still subsidises to succeed".
"None of this meets WTO rules".
"China also smothers complaints about her trade practices by judicious economic investment: this shows that, rules notwithstanding, economic power and a deep national wallet can by-pass accepted international behaviour".
On defence:
"China now has the world’s largest Navy, with more warships and submarines than America – and she continues to build them at pace"".
"It is time to remember that – in the late 16th Century – China was the pre-eminent global power. China has not forgotten this: and nor should we".
Brexiteers have always over estimated both our economic and military power, seeing Britain as it was at the end of the nineteenth century. We aren't the centre of an empire any longer and as Sir John Major says, we are just a "a middle-sized, middle-ranking nation that is no longer super-charged by its alliances". Brexit will indeed make us weaker and poorer.
Those of us who are the baby boomers, have lived under the protective wing of the Americans all of our lives and perhaps we have taken for granted that the world's pre-eminent super power was a western democracy with enough economic as well as diplomatic and military firepower to act as the global policeman. It could have been very different. International law is made by those with the wherewithal to make it work.
China is a growing super power but led by one absolute ruler for life. It is far from being a stable democracy operating within the rule of law. Russia is an even more dangerous kleptocracy. Who knows what the next century will bring?
I believe the next time we join the EU - as we certainly will because to be outside is not a rational place for us - it will be as a chastened country, perhaps more able to recognise the benefits of working closely with our nearest neighbours for our security and prosperity.
