Things are definitely hotting up. Yesterday was quite a roller coaster ride. First we had reports the deal had already been done in secret, then Raab made an unscheduled dash to Brussels (HERE) to resolve "big issues" and finally after seven o'clock a tweet from Barnier telling us that "key issues" (same thing I think), including the Irish backstop were "still open" (HERE). In other words there is no agreement. However, hopes weren't dashed because none were raised in the first place. Nobody has any hope left. Our spirits have all been broken.
I assume that the time for shuffling words around to make it look as if one side or the other has changed position when they haven't, is over. The negotiators can't do any more.
Both sides are playing things down at the moment, that it isn't a final dust up. But it seems Raab rejected what had been negotiated over the weekend and is probably trying to spell out the domestic difficulties the PM has in getting the deal approved by cabinet. I don't suppose it damages Mrs May to look as if she's playing hardball. The other leaders will now have to make the political decision that might enable a deal to be done.
Adam Fleming, the BBC's Brussels correspondent is saying (HERE) that:
"Wednesday's meeting would be dominated by the unresolved issues in the divorce process, rather than focusing on the future relationship".
If May is gambling on the EU 27 having some sympathy for her position, I wouldn't have too much hope. What goodwill there might have been at the start has long since evaporated. She doesn't seem to have a single friend among them. For the EU to make concessions would be to give in to the ultra Brexiteers and they surely can't contemplate that.
I was always sure a deal, or at least the outline of a deal would be agreed this week, and perhaps it will but I am a lot less sure than I was. Maybe we should begin stocking up on canned food?
There is speculation that this week's summit of EU leaders will now use an emergency summit in November to advance planning for a no deal outcome. If it comes to a trial of strength there can only be one winner - as this cartoon from The Economist shows, albeit about trade deals:
Whatever deal was on the table this unnamed diplomat on the Politico website (HERE) surely has it right:
"The diplomats who said a deal [at negotiator level] had been struck were cautious, and one expressed particular concerns about how the package would be received in the U.K. May has struggled from the outset to navigate her Brexit strategy through the warring camps and interest groups: hard and soft Brexiteers, Remainers, and hard-core unionists, citizens rights’ advocates and business and industry concerns".
I note he's not concerned how it's going to be received in the EU 27. That should tell us a lot.
