Whatever festive goodwill we might have enjoyed over the past couple of weeks it is not going to extend very far into the new year for Mrs May. Spraying a few knighthoods around and promoting some Brexiteers onto the privy council will not alter the dire parliamentary arithmetic in favour of her deal.
Liam Fox's comments (HERE) about no-deal or no-Brexit being finely balanced at 50:50 if May's Withdrawal Agreement is rejected will probably have the opposite effect to the one intended. Can anyone really imagine any of the high profile Brexiteers who have dismissed the deal as being worse than membership suddenly voting for it?
Who is going to appear on national prime time TV eating large portions of crow? My guess is not a single one. Which of the hardmen of Brexit are suddenly going to change into emollient flower arrangers? There will more likely be talk of belt tightening, hair shirts, the Dunkirk spirit and dig for victory rather than accepting the deal the PM has negotiated. We are the nation that gave the world the charge of the light brigade, masters of the futile gesture painted afterwards as a gallant and almost victorious failure.
Talks are said to be continuing in 'the tunnel' to find a form of words that suggest jet black is actually pure white and the cast iron, legally binding indefinite backstop is actually just a flimsy tissue of temporariness. Good luck with that one.
No, the vote will be lost in January and while there may be an attempt
with a defibrillator to revive it for a second go, it will be declared
dead before the end of January.
So is it to be no-deal or no-Brexit?
There is no time to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement even if the EU would agree to reopen talks, something they are adamantly opposed to.
Some MPs think no-deal is survivable and it probably is, but not without significant damage to the economy both before the exit day and immediately after it, as well as in the short, medium and long term. The no-deal talk is all bravado though. It ain't going to happen. The government know the contingency plans are largely bluff.
In any case, walking away and saving face afterwards would be virtually impossible and this is something the government will be well aware of. Bluffing is fine when you succeed but utterly humiliating when you lose. It would be a national calamity and the Tories would be finished for ever.
We desperately need a trade deal and the WA is an essential precursor. This is never going to change, no matter how long it takes our politicians to come to their senses.
Unless something really dramatic happens in the next couple of weeks I think a second vote will look quite attractive early in 2019. For remainers, looking back on 2018, I don't believe things could have gone better for us. Brexit is in serious trouble - and it can only get worse. The tide in the affairs of men is turning in our favour. Keep the faith.
Whatever happens, have a Happy New Year.
