I would like to wish everyone a Happy New Year but I have absolutely no idea what 2019 will bring. Brexit is all uncertainty and almost anything is possible. However, I know what I would like to happen and if I wanted to imagine looking back on a tumultuous year on 1st January 2020, this is how it would be:
Well, what a crazy year 2019 was. Who would have thought in April 2017 after the Article 50 notification was sent that Brexit might be reversed? But it was.
Parliament reconvened after the Christmas break on 7th January and the debate on the Withdrawal Agreement restarted on the 9th but it quickly became clear there was no consensus and Theresa May, while getting some minor concessions on wording from the EU, received no legally binding assurances about the backstop. At least none that convinced more than a rump of her party to support the deal.
A meaningful vote was finally held on Thursday 17th January and, as expected, it was lost. But the margin of 120 votes was a resounding defeat for Theresa May. It was certainly a meaningful vote but nobody realised at the time just how momentous it would turn out to be. May survived but sterling came under immediate pressure and quickly sank below $1.15 to the £1. She made an immediate statement to the House that she would come back with proposals to try and find a consensus. Business groups including the CBI, the BCC, EEF and the Federation of Small Businesses, were in a panic and called on the government to urgently revoke article 50.
The following week an amendable motion was put before fractious MPs with various options including joining the EEA with Norway and Iceland or leaving without a deal. MPs amended the motion with their own preferred variations of the options. None commanded a majority, although it was quite obvious that the outcome likely to receive most support was the softest possible Brexit, remaining in or close to the single market and the customs union.
Talk of leaving without a deal provoked a further fall in sterling, slumping to $1.10 with more volatility in the markets. Fitches and Moodys, the international rating agencies both downgraded Britain's credit rating on fears we would leave without a deal. The Bank of England intervened with an
increase in interest rates to 1.25% to support the pound. ONS figures released at the same time showed the economy
shrank by 0.1% in the last quarter of 2018 while the trade gap widened
to its largest since the end of 2014..
In a febrile climate at the beginning of February, some of Britain's biggest companies, including Nissan and JLR, announced plans to close factories and relocate into the EU if the UK left the single market without a deal. They took out a series of full page ads in national newspapers. While this was happening, the NHS was undergoing the most severe winter crisis in its history with people turned away from A&E and being held in heated tents hurriedly erected in car parks because even corridors were becoming dangerously overcrowded. Staff shortages due to EU clinical staff returning home was blamed.
Brexiteers were furious, accusing anybody and everybody who was less than 110% behind Brexit of being remainers and thwarting the will of the people but it was clear the mood was beginning to change.
Brexiteers were furious, accusing anybody and everybody who was less than 110% behind Brexit of being remainers and thwarting the will of the people but it was clear the mood was beginning to change.
After consulting with the EU27 and getting their agreement, May announced a delay to Article 50 period in order to allow another referendum. She made that now famous broadcast to the nation setting out the options and the serious economic consequences of leaving without a deal. The Telegraph, Express and The Sun went absolutely crazy but crucially The Daily Mail was supportive and said it was the only solution. Several Brexiteer cabinet ministers resigned including Leadsom, Mordaunt and Fox but importantly, Gove remained
and announced he would campaign for the deal.
A lot of wrangling followed but the second referendum question
was finally agreed. It was a choice either to accept the deal or remain in the EU on present terms. There was no option for exiting without a deal. The government said it had no choice if some semblance of stability in the money
markets was to be restored and it was clear to everybody, even the diehard leavers, that this possibility was having a major impact on the value of the pound. The attitude of the man in the street about Brexit began to change around this time. Even the mood in the Conservative Associations began to shift subtly away from the extreme position they had held all through the fruitless negotiations.
Then came the bombshell announcement at the end of February. Boris Johnson said he had
had second thoughts about Brexit and given the painful choice before the people between a terrible deal and remaining in the EU, he would push for us to remain in the EU and fight for reform from
the inside. Everybody realised the fat fraud was only in it for himself but he was credited with swinging extra support behind the remain side. Needless to say he was mercilessly attacked by the leave extremists and many are still refusing to talk to him, even though he is now the prime minister. But I'm getting ahead of myself.
Cries of betrayal went out and Leave means leave began a vicious campaign in the second referendum which was planned for Thursday 20th of June just three days from the third anniversary of the 2016 vote.
In April, Aaron Banks was charged with several criminal offences regarding illegal funding and misuse of data during the 2016 campaign. The trial was set for August amid claims that it was all politically motivated but more details emerged of Russian involvement in the first referendum through the American investigation of Trump's links to Putin.
At the end of the month, Nigel Farage launched a new political party as a UKIP rival but during the official launch, in scenes of total confusion and farce, he was arrested in connection with Julian Assange allegedly leaking Clinton campaign emails to Donald Trump's presidential campaign. The new party was crippled from the start and never really played a serious part in the campaign.
Polling showed support for remaining in the EU hit 57% by the beginning of May and the population became heartily sick of the word Brexit. And as the campaign ramped up, the pound sank even further with the BoE having to raise interest rates again to 1.75%. Mortgage defaults started to edge up and personal bankruptcies hit a record high.
Airbus announced the building of a new plant to produce the next generation of advanced wings made from lightweight composites in France. Operations in North Wales were to be run down and closed completely by 2030. The uncertainty surrounding Brexit was blamed. The Welsh government launched a massive effort to keep the Broughton factory going and government support money was promised if the leave vote was overturned. Brexiteers accused the government of bribery but it had the desired effect in Wales, the polls in favour of remain jumped to 63%.
By June the campaign was at full throttle but it become increasingly clear that repeating the lies told by the leave side in 2016 was not having the desired impact and polling for Mrs May's deal never reached 40%. The worse the polling figures, the more extreme and exaggerated the messages became and the more support for Breeding fell away.
The remain side were far more organised this time. They had more activists, more social media presence, more events, more TV coverage and, perhaps most significantly, a population far more sceptical about the ridiculous claims made by the pro Brexit campaign.
The remain side were far more organised this time. They had more activists, more social media presence, more events, more TV coverage and, perhaps most significantly, a population far more sceptical about the ridiculous claims made by the pro Brexit campaign.
Referendum day was mad. Troops were on the streets of many eastern towns where scuffles broke out between the rival campaigns.
At the end of the evening the roads were virtually silent and everybody gathered to watch the results being announced. The first results came in from Sunderland at almost 2 o'clock in the morning but it was worth the wait. Whereas in 2016 Sunderland had voted 61% to leave the EU, now it was 54% remain and we knew Brexit was coming to an end.
By the morning when most of the results were in the result was 62% to remain in the EU and 38% to leave. Scotland was even more emphatic at 71% to remain. England was still the most eurosceptic but even the English had vote 55% to remain.
It was all over. Article 50 was withdrawn.
Theresa May stood down as party leader even though she could technically have continued to the end of the year. Just as David Cameron had done, she remained PM while a leadership election was held. Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour party were up in arms, demanding a general election and there were rowdy scenes in the House but Mrs May stood firm.
The contest was between Leadsom and Johnson. Bojo had managed to find his way onto the ballot after his Damascene conversion and assurances he had given to pro remain Tory MPs. It was close, but Johnson, once the darling of Conservative associations up and down the country, although losing a lot of support managed to drag himself over the line and he finally became PM.
His message to Tories disgusted with him as a turncoat was that the country had to put Brexi behind it and come together and it was this that convinced the blue rinse brigade to back him. There was no doubt the fat oaf's facility with words was a key factor. He charmed his way into No 10.
Aaron Banks and his his sidekick Andy Wigmore were both found guilty of routing inelligible foreign funding to the 2016 referendum and received suspended jail sentences. Both men had eventually pleaded guilty faced with overwhelming evidence. Banks vowed never to get involved in politics again. His GoSkippy insurance company collapsed and he was declared bankrupt in November.
The pound recovered most of the lost ground and by September was trading at £1.50. Growth leapt to 0.8% in the third quarter, the highest since before the crash, fuelled by the release of pent up investment and a boost in consumer confidence. Inflation fell and wages grew putting more money into the working man and woman's pocket. It was a virtuous circle with all the economic indicators set fair.
Theresa May stood down as party leader even though she could technically have continued to the end of the year. Just as David Cameron had done, she remained PM while a leadership election was held. Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour party were up in arms, demanding a general election and there were rowdy scenes in the House but Mrs May stood firm.
The contest was between Leadsom and Johnson. Bojo had managed to find his way onto the ballot after his Damascene conversion and assurances he had given to pro remain Tory MPs. It was close, but Johnson, once the darling of Conservative associations up and down the country, although losing a lot of support managed to drag himself over the line and he finally became PM.
His message to Tories disgusted with him as a turncoat was that the country had to put Brexi behind it and come together and it was this that convinced the blue rinse brigade to back him. There was no doubt the fat oaf's facility with words was a key factor. He charmed his way into No 10.
Aaron Banks and his his sidekick Andy Wigmore were both found guilty of routing inelligible foreign funding to the 2016 referendum and received suspended jail sentences. Both men had eventually pleaded guilty faced with overwhelming evidence. Banks vowed never to get involved in politics again. His GoSkippy insurance company collapsed and he was declared bankrupt in November.
The pound recovered most of the lost ground and by September was trading at £1.50. Growth leapt to 0.8% in the third quarter, the highest since before the crash, fuelled by the release of pent up investment and a boost in consumer confidence. Inflation fell and wages grew putting more money into the working man and woman's pocket. It was a virtuous circle with all the economic indicators set fair.
Bojo announced plans to regenerate town centres with substantial investment, starting in the North East, Lincolnshire and Essex, areas that voted most heavily for leave in 2016. Nigel Farage, battling extradition to the USA where he faces trial and a lengthy prison sentence, is holed up in the Euadorian embassy in London, ironically in the room Assange occupied until he was forcibly ejected and arrested in September. Assange is now in Belmarsh prison waiting to be extradited himself.
We end 2019 in a far better position than we started it. There is still a lot of rancour but things are starting to settle down and most people just want to put the last four years behind us.
A fantasy? Maybe. But we can all dream can't we? Cue Frank Sinatra and High Hopes.
We end 2019 in a far better position than we started it. There is still a lot of rancour but things are starting to settle down and most people just want to put the last four years behind us.
A fantasy? Maybe. But we can all dream can't we? Cue Frank Sinatra and High Hopes.
