Daniel Hannan and his ilk, are beginning to circle the wagons. He is bright enough to realise that Brexit is turning into an almighty train wreck and is busy casting around for scapegoats. Having helped to release the brake against all the expert advice, he is now seeking to shift responsibility onto those who told him it would be a disaster. In his Telegraph column this week (behind a paywall but see it HERE). He wants to try and show that if we leave without a deal, it will all be down to remainers like me (and you perhaps).
At least he doesn't try to disguise the purpose of his article, which has the title: "Blame Remainers for opening the door to a no-deal Brexit, but it may now be the least painful option"
At least he doesn't try to disguise the purpose of his article, which has the title: "Blame Remainers for opening the door to a no-deal Brexit, but it may now be the least painful option"
Gina Miller is the first up. He says her court case, "gave parliament the decisive say over the disengagement" and this has meant the EU never gave any credence to a no deal Brexit because MPs were always going to prevent it. This convoluted piece of responsibility shifting takes quite a bit of chutzpah but don't worry, as a leading Brexiteer, Hannan has plenty of that.
First of all, Gina Miller did not give MPs the meaningful vote, this was done by MPs themselves.
The Miller case was about ensuring a role for parliament in triggering Article 50 and nothing else. I think it's universally acknowledged now that Article 50 was invoked far too early but without the delay which the Miller case introduced, the notification would have gone out even earlier. Whether the delay helped or not, I don't know but giving a bit of extra time certainly didn't hinder anything.
The Miller case was about ensuring a role for parliament in triggering Article 50 and nothing else. I think it's universally acknowledged now that Article 50 was invoked far too early but without the delay which the Miller case introduced, the notification would have gone out even earlier. Whether the delay helped or not, I don't know but giving a bit of extra time certainly didn't hinder anything.
He says at the outset, neither side wanted a no deal outcome, but:
"Then along came a succession of British politicians assuring them that there was no need to worry. Sir Vince Cable, Chuka Umunna, Anna Soubry and others asserted that no deal was “not an option”. Sir John Major and Sir Nick Clegg took to a German newspaper to urge the EU to hang tough. Cabinet ministers openly declared that they wouldn’t permit Britain to leave without an agreement".
To make this assertion you have to assume (a) the EU Commission were wilfully blind to the amount and type of trade conducted between us and the EU 27 and the impact that no deal would have on both sides and (b) they take their instructions from the German media and not the EU Council. This is so ridiculous it's not even fanciful.
Hannan seems to think the EU is particularly dim and don't realise they are seven times our size with the biggest and richest single market in the world. But he goes on:
"Look at it from the point of view of an EU negotiator. If the British won’t walk away then, by definition, they have only two options – either to drop Brexit or to sign whatever terms Brussels puts before them. The EU can hardly be blamed, in the circumstances, for hardening its line. Repeatedly assured that Parliament would force British negotiators back to the table, it made increasingly aggressive demands: a massive financial payment, a spell of non-voting membership, the regulatory annexation of Northern Ireland, control of UK trade policy even after Brexit, a continuing role for Euro-judges – and all without any promise of a trade deal in return".
To try and make his point that MPs are helpless to prevent us leaving without a deal, he refers to a report by the Institute for Government (IfG) looking at five ways MPs might be able to stop Brexit and says they "found none of them wholly convincing". In fact the IfG said nothing of the kind - see it (HERE) as far as I can see they are all convincing. I find it's always best to check assertions by Brexiteers of anything which sounds doubtful but helps their case.
I wouldn't worry anyway about what MPs may or may not be able to do because the government itself will never permit us to leave without a deal. It would be electoral suicide.
The EU were always described by Brexiteers as useless trade negotiators, something at which we would excel if only we were able to do so. Now I note he says the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement are 'vicious' and 'abominable' - but it isn't due to the superior strength and negotiating skills of the EU27 and The Commission but 'continuity remainers' on our side. Hannan is utterly blind to our faults as well as EU strengths.
Once Brexit was going to be all free milk and honey in some benign Utopia where Britain once again took it's old position as master of the world, now the Brexit Mrs May has led us to is the worst possible option, leaving without a deal is the 'least painful' - except that is for remaining in the EU, which wouldn't involve any pain at all. Simple really.
I think we need to get used to this sort of narrative by the way. Before the referendum everything was the fault of the EU. After Brexit, everything will still be the fault of the EU but aided by we 'continuity remainers'.
