I am beginning to wonder if what was known as 'project fear' will at last have an impact on public opinion in 2019. The Sunday Times yesterday devoted a couple of full pages to preparations for a no deal exit. The food industry is trying to stockpile supplies amid fears of bottlenecks at Dover. One article claimed Britain imports 40% of the food we consume on average throughout the year but this rises to 'as high as 70%' in March and April.
Finding an alternative supplier for perhaps half the food for 65 million people is not going to be easy.
Tim Lang, a professor of food policy at City University, London says,
"It's a very foolish country that starts taking risks with its food
security. But Britain is in the process of doing that".
A civil servant is quoted as telling staff, "There should be enough calories for the population" with the writers focusing on the rather worrying use of the word 'should'. A trade expert at the Centre for European Reform says, "People aren't going to starve, but there won't be the type of choice people are used to". Well that's a comfort isn't it?
The Sunday Times also claims 280,000 ex pats would return to the UK in the event of no deal. That's more than the population of Derby!
NHS staff have apparently been told to review holidays together with the number of operations planned for the last weekend of March next year. Every NHS organisation has been told to appoint a senior official responsible for contingency planning and to do it asap.
There are fears about drugs with some smaller suppliers being unable to find the extra costs of increasing stock levels to the levels being demanded. Vaccines and insulin have the shortest shelf lives with big worries about babies being vaccinated against diphtheria, whooping cough and measles. Most common drugs come in from overseas apparently.
Against this background, The Guardian (HERE) are reporting that many drug firms are being forced to sign non disclosure agreements (NDAs) or 'gagging orders' so we don't know the extent of the planning being done or the potential problems.
It is however, going to be impossible to keep this all secret. As we enter the crucial final phase the public will have to be told what the possible or expected consequences of no deal are. The curtain will have to be pulled back to reveal what the Brexiteers don't want you to know.
Not only will we not be able to have our cake and eat it, there won't even be the ingredients to make it. There will be no cake - unless it's made from a wartime recipe using potato peelings and carrot tops. That's perhaps quite appropriate for a country taking itself back to 1940.
But for the time being, Merry Christmas. Let's enjoy what may be our final Yuletide in the EU.
As for a no deal Brexit - forget it. As Tobias Ellwood, Junior Minister at the MoD, says it's not an option (HERE) so for remainers it's all good news. We get the warnings and the bad news and the moderate leave voters, those who don't want to starve, get the slow realisation that project fear 2.0 is actually project reality and remaining in the EU is the best option.
No more posts until after Boxing Day. Happy Christmas.
