I notice in the EU Referendum blog this morning that Dr Richard North (HERE) is forecasting a "Chamberlain moment" where the PM returns from Brussels sometime in the new year waving a piece of paper and the Conservative party will then fall into line and give Mrs May enough support, with labour rebels' help, to get her deal through parliament. His post yesterday was about straw clutchers (HERE). We shall see before January is out who has been clutching straws.
His prediction comes partly from a report in The Sunday Times (HERE) which begins:
"Theresa May’s allies are plotting to keep her in Downing Street for
at least another two years amid growing confidence that she will get her
Brexit deal through parliament.
"Her supporters in cabinet have
been buoyed by what they believe to be a substantial shift in political
arithmetic in the Commons. This follows secret talks between May’s chief
Brexit negotiator Ollie Robbins and his European counterparts last
week".
Dr North seems to think a combination of MPs being exposed to a lot of angry constituents over Christmas, the increasing pressure from business and what he says is support for the prime minister's deal "in the country" will finally get her over the line - perhaps with a few more "parliamentary games before the MPs finally settle down and gives the prime minister what she needs".
He may be right, but personally I don't think so. The parliamentary problems with the deal run far deeper than just the backstop - even if a form of words can be found to soothe the DUP and the ERG. There is the continuing role of the ECJ and the rule taking aspect outlined in the future trade deal. I do not claim it isn't the best deal she could get, only that it is worse than being a member of the EU - as a growing number of voters seem to think (HERE). A recent poll show 59% would prefer to remain than accept the present deal.
I believe Richard North is starting to see Brexit slipping away and is unable to look at things in a balanced way (as perhaps I am). He is guilty of the same fault as the rest of us in thinking his preferred outcome is more likely to happen simply because this is what he wants.
He doesn't believe MPs have the power to stop Brexit and quotes an article by Andrea Leadsom (HERE) approvingly where she suggests that MPs seem "at last to have woken up to the reality" that if they fail to approve Theresa
May's plan or an alternative they will be unable to stop the
UK from leaving the EU without a deal. But MPs have an awful lot of power to block or amend the legislation needed to be passed through the House before March 29th and they will no doubt be using whatever technical means that they can. I think Leadsom and North may be too optimistic.
The two factions in parliament are each intent on snatching a greater prize that simply leaving the EU under any circumstances. One prefers a clean break, leaving without any deal at all, while the other, larger faction, sees the possibility of remaining in the EU.
The EU Referendum blog has been at the forefront in warning of the dire consequences of no deal, but sees the only alternative as accepting the WA. I am not convinced the rising clamour from big and small businesses alike will push the man in the street towards a preference for what is almost universally seen as a poor deal. I think it is more likely to push public opinion towards the only other real, sensible and practical option - no Brexit.
The political consequences of remaining in the EU will indeed be disastrous for May and the Tories, but so is the alternative, as Dr North has repeatedly warned.
We don't have long to wait. The straws are waiting to be clutched.
