There is no doubt the next 36 hours will be both momentous and pivotal for Brexit and for Theresa May. The Withdrawal Bill debate continues today and tomorrow with the vote expected on Tuesday evening. An exchange of letters is expected later between the EU and the UK with further reassurances about the backstop but nobody is expecting any significant mind altering substance to it.
I thought you might be interested in this tweeted forecast from an organisation called Election Maps UK, which only seems to have a Twitter presence. They forecast she will lose by 205 votes. I don't know how much weight to give to it but if it turns out to be accurate Mrs May will be toast by Wednesday.
I thought you might be interested in this tweeted forecast from an organisation called Election Maps UK, which only seems to have a Twitter presence. They forecast she will lose by 205 votes. I don't know how much weight to give to it but if it turns out to be accurate Mrs May will be toast by Wednesday.
Brexit Deal Vote Forecast (13/01):For: 217 (-6) // [199 to 245]Against: 422 (+6) // [394 to 440]Defeat by 205 Votes // [149 to 245].Changes with 12/01. pic.twitter.com/OcfisahzHL— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) January 13, 2019
I don't expect the numbers to be quite that bad but I do think the PM will suffer a humiliating defeat and we will be into a political crisis the likes of which nobody in this country has ever seen. I think we are looking at well north of a 120 vote defeat.
We will also be seeing the first of two great ironies and some outright hypocrisy. Tomorrow evening the ERG, headed up by Jacob Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker, along with a lot of other MPs, will use the meaningful vote to block the deal. They argued against allowing parliament any say at all in the Brexit process but will shamelessly use the vote they vigorously opposed and voted against, to prevent the deal being ratified. This is the deal remember that they were sure would catapult the nation out of the EU to glory but now turns out to a complete pigs ear.
The next irony will come in a few weeks when the PM finds her only option to retain some semblance of control of the runaway juggernaut, is to withdraw Article 50 using the ECJ ruling of a few weeks ago. This is an option that she tried desperately to close off and that she stubbornly resisted for months and months. Her government has spent a small fortune on lawyers fighting the case in Scotland, in the Supreme Court and in the ECJ. She will shamelessly use that to unilaterally stop the Article 50 process.
Ken Clarke in the House proposed exactly this in the House a few days ago, something he said should be done on LBC radio as well (HERE). Clarke has a habit of recognising problems long before others. John Major called for exactly the same thing this weekend (HERE).
So, watch out.
