The Telegraph had a portentous headline above an article last Saturday: 'Tories on brink: Historic split looms as Brexiteers and Remainers threaten to torpedo government' (HERE). Edward Malnick, the Sunday Political Editor had written a breathless piece about all the issues raging inside the party that are coming to a head this week. However, you search in vain for any solid evidence that the party is going to split anytime soon.
Yet I find myself agreeing with the headline. In fact I have written several times on the same topic (HERE). It is becoming ever clearer that the divisions over Europe which have tormented the Conservatives for forty years are moving towards the end game. They cannot continue indefinitely.
The only real reference to the party splitting or being damaged comes from Mr Malnick saying:
"Sir Bernard Jenkin, another senior pro-Leave MP, said if Mrs May departed from the March 29 exit date or struck a deal with Labour for a softer Brexit, 'I don’t know what happens to the Conservative Party.'
"The warnings underscore the potential magnitude of Tuesday’s vote, amid growing calls for a second referendum or extension of Britain’s EU membership beyond March. One Tory MP said: 'We’re heading towards a brick wall at 100mph and are going to be smashed to smithereens.'"
For the moment both sides of the argument are keeping quiet but if Theresa May goes there will be all-out war. The Conservative leadership election process means narrowing potential replacements down and finally putting two candidates to the membership. The problem is that the membership and MPs do not see Europe in the same way at all. The membership would probably prefer a choice of at least one Eurosceptic but are unlikely to get any.
A majority of Tory MPs are pro-Europe and are unlikely to give the membership an option for JRM or BoJo. This is probably why Hunt and Javid are born again Brexiteers but they will be treated with suspicion by the grass roots who think they are remainers at heart like Theresa May.
The European circle inside the Tory party cannot be squared. They have tried for years to rub along with diametrically opposed views and while we were solid members of the EU it did not really matter. Eurosceptics could grumble but there was little they could do about it. The referendum has changed all that. The prospect of leaving the EU overshadows everything. For Eurosceptics, the risk of Brexit not delivering their longed for dream when it is so tantalisingly close will probably be too much.
I think a historic split is coming and sooner than we think. But it will be a good thing. The electorate will finally have clarity on what they will get if they vote for either of the two centre right parties that arise from the ashes. The real winners will be Labour.
