Theresa May has written a letter to all 317 Conservative MPs urging them to come together and support her plan to try and renegotiate the backstop in some as yet to be defined way. It is an extraordinary letter in many ways. You can read it in full HERE. It looks like an attempt to call a truce in the war about Europe that has been going on inside the Tory party for 30 years. Some people might say it's a bit late for that.
"Without a withdrawal agreement we risk a combination forming in Parliament that will stop Brexit altogether, whatever the long-term consequences for trust in our democracy. Alternatively, the UK might exit the EU without a deal or an implementation period. That would cause disruption to our economy and to people’s daily lives, damaging jobs both at home and across the EU".
She writes as if a no-deal exit is some kind of irreversible process that she is completely helpless to prevent. The UK 'might' exit the EU without a deal! She has it within her gift to prevent it but talks as if a natural disaster is coming our way. There is no need for any damage or disruption, she simply has to write a letter withdrawing Article 50.
This reminds me of the Monty Python sketch where the gangsters Dino and Luigi Vercotti enter a British Army base wearing mafia suits and sunglasses - "You've... you've got a nice country here. We wouldn't want anything to happen to it". This is essentially what she's doing - not for protection money, but to get support for her deal.
Now here's the primary school teacher asking some unruly boys to shake hands and make up:
"Instead, our party can do what it has done so often in the past: move beyond what divides us and come together behind what unites us; sacrifice if necessary our own personal preferences in the higher service of the national interest; and rise to the level of events in a way that restores the faith of he British people in our political process.
"It would be the action of a Conservative and Unionist Party worthy of that proud name".
Asking the ERG to sacrifice their own personal preferences will be like asking them to become Europhiles and join Vince Cable's Lib Dems. This is never going to happen but it shows how desperate she is becoming.
According to The Sunday Times (HERE no £) Steve Baker, the shop steward of the ERG has already dismissed the PM's latest strategy, telling colleagues that May’s Brexit negotiations with Brussels were a “complete waste of time”. According to the report:
"Baker said the ERG had to 'insist' that the Irish backstop — an insurance policy to prevent the return of a hard border in Ireland that could lock Britain into an indefinite customs union with the EU — be removed from May’s withdrawal agreement. The alternative, according to the leaked messages from Baker, is to 'just grind towards a party split' ".
"Baker said the ERG had to 'insist' that the Irish backstop — an insurance policy to prevent the return of a hard border in Ireland that could lock Britain into an indefinite customs union with the EU — be removed from May’s withdrawal agreement. The alternative, according to the leaked messages from Baker, is to 'just grind towards a party split' ".
To continue with her letter, the PM told Tory MPs that:
"History will judge us all for the parts we have played in this process. I believe that a country with our innate strengths, enviable resources, and enormous talent can face the future with confidence that our best days lie ahead. But we stand now at a crucial moment. I do not underestimate how deeply or how sincerely colleagues hold the views which they do on this important issue – or that we are all motivated by a common desire to do what is best for our country, even if we disagree on the means of doing so. But I believe that a failure to make the compromises necessary to reach and take through Parliament a withdrawal agreement which delivers on the result of the referendum will let down the people who sent us to represent them and risk the bright future that they all deserve".
"History will judge us all for the parts we have played in this process. I believe that a country with our innate strengths, enviable resources, and enormous talent can face the future with confidence that our best days lie ahead. But we stand now at a crucial moment. I do not underestimate how deeply or how sincerely colleagues hold the views which they do on this important issue – or that we are all motivated by a common desire to do what is best for our country, even if we disagree on the means of doing so. But I believe that a failure to make the compromises necessary to reach and take through Parliament a withdrawal agreement which delivers on the result of the referendum will let down the people who sent us to represent them and risk the bright future that they all deserve".
History will judge the Tories and Mrs May herself and it will not be kind.
She goes on about the 11th hour scramble to get some sort of cobbled-together alternative arrangement to the one she negotiated although she doesn't mention that:
"The process of positive engagement that Steve Barclay is leading with colleagues on the Alternative Arrangements Working Group is helping to inform the formulation of our policy in this area. We are working on whether alternative arrangements could replace the current backstop proposals now and, as Steve Barclay told the House on 14 February, we are investing civil service resource in all this work".
She talks in the letter as if it is only necessary to get an agreement with her own party with little if any acknowledgement or even recognition that the EU have firmly resisted any hint they will entertain reopening the Withdrawal Agreement.
I note on the Politico Pro website and only available to subscribers is an article (HERE) about how the PM appears to be gambling on getting a deal at the very last minute. The title is: Theresa May sets course for Brexit disaster - The UK prime minister appears to be betting on a deal at the very last minute. Politico is very well connected and I think there is a lot of truth in the headline.
It is a very high risk strategy fraught with danger and based on the belief that the EU only offer concessions in the last seconds. This may be a profound misreading of the situation. When the Commission is trying to reach a consensus between members it does tend to work up to the wire. But many observers do not think Brussels will not be so accommodating with a soon-to-be-former member.
David Jones, another lunatic Brexiteer, Conservative MP and former DEXEU minister until he was sacked, appears to think the same thing as reported by the BBC HERE.
"More and more people are trying to stop Brexit and ensure the UK stays in the EU, a Welsh MP has said. David Jones said those calling for a second referendum or more negotiating time had no plan for leaving.
"The Tory MP for Clwyd West, a former Brexit minister, predicted a deal will not be agreed until 'a few days' before the UK's departure on 29 March.
"He accused remain campaigners of 'desperately trying to keep the country in the EU' instead of coming up with alternative plans to stop a no-deal scenario. Mr Jones rejected the prime minister's plan over the controversial backstop, which is aimed at preventing a hard border on the island of Ireland but critics believe will keep the UK tied to the EU.
"He added: 'My suspicion is, as we get close, maybe [a] few days from departure day, there will be a flurry of activity. I think the EU will come forward with legal assurances, effectively removing the log jam and removing the backstop'."
"If this does not happen and the UK leaves without a deal, he does not think 'the sky fall will fall in'."
Well that's OK then - at least the sky won't fall in although I'm not sure it would matter if it did, we will have so many other emergencies on our hands probably nobody would notice. Jones thinks the EU are going to budge and 'come forward with legal assurances'. I hope he hasn't put a lot of money on that outcome.
Well that's OK then - at least the sky won't fall in although I'm not sure it would matter if it did, we will have so many other emergencies on our hands probably nobody would notice. Jones thinks the EU are going to budge and 'come forward with legal assurances'. I hope he hasn't put a lot of money on that outcome.
Finally, perhaps as a pointer to something happening deep inside British politics, ITV have a report about the Labour party (HERE) and what the reporter claims is the 'inevitable' split which could come as early as next week. Parliament, on 27th February, will have a last chance to vote on a range of amendments on Theresa May's approach, a last chance for MPs to prevent a no-deal Brexit. This seems to be a key date not only for Labour rebels but for Tory ones as well.
If nothing happens next week, the only thing between this country and a no-deal disaster is the PM herself and a revocation of Article 50.
Which way will the PM jump? Is it a historic split in the Tory party? This is likely to happen in any event I think. Or is it a long delay to Article 50 as Olly Robbins said?
We are just a few days away from finding out. My prediction is a long delay to Brexit.
