The Irish Times have a fascinating article about UK-Japan trade talks (HERE). It seems to have been syndicated from the FT but you can read it without a paywall on the Irish Times website. Everything the experts said about trying to roll over existing EU trade deals is shown to be true in this one story. Far from being a doddle, as Liam Fox told us, with Japan it is proving nigh on impossible.
Talks with Tokyo have apparently been going on for eighteen months and have got nowhere. Brexiteers frequently suggest we can get a good deal from the EU provided politics don't 'get in the way'. What they are about to learn is that trade and politics are two sides of the same coin. You cannot have one without the other.
The report says:
"Tokyo is confident that it can secure better terms from the UK than it did in negotiations with the much larger EU, and is not willing to duplicate the existing treaty precisely in either a bilateral deal or in talks for the UK to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership group.
" 'The new agreement is not just a copy-and-paste of the existing treaty,' said one Japanese official briefed on the talks. 'The tariffs, rules and quotas need to be negotiated separately.'
"The lack of progress on a future bilateral deal – a goal set out by prime minister Theresa May on a visit to Japan in August 2017 – highlights the UK’s broader struggle to roll over existing EU trade deals, let alone secure anything better".
Japan has agreed to continue the EU trade deal during any transition period but not in the event of a no deal Brexit, and not after the transition ends in December 2020. We will be under pressure in the 21 months after March 29th (assuming we get that far) to conclude a trade deal with a much bigger economy, working against the clock with a partner who understands how trade works. It does not bode well.
The FT reports continues:
"But in preliminary talks, Tokyo’s veteran trade negotiators have been under instructions to extract every advantage possible. Progress has been particularly slow since many of their UK counterparts have been diverted to work on preparations for a no-deal Brexit".
And as if to reinforce the economically and politically straitened circumstances we are headed into post Brexit, the Irish have got the US Congress to support the principle of the backstop. CNN report (HERE) the Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney has been in the US drumming up support and seemingly finding plenty of it.
From the CNN report:
"In an interview with CNN on Wednesday, Rep. Brendan Boyle, an Irish-American and member of the 'Friends of Ireland' caucus that met with Coveney, said a hard border arising from Brexit negotiations would have a "major impact" on Capitol Hill.
"There's absolutely no way the US is going to do anything that would sacrifice our relationship with the EU," said Boyle, a Democrat from Pennsylvania. Congress would need to approve any future US-UK trade deals, he said.
"At one of the Coveney events this week, Rep. Peter King, a Republican from New York, said bluntly: 'If the British want to consider any type of trade agreement with the US, it's important that that soft border be maintained.' "
""Rep. Richard Neal, a Massachusetts Democrat and chairman of the 'Friends of Ireland' caucus, has long worked to help progress peace in Northern Ireland and was part of the group that met with Coveney. He is also the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, which will oversee any future trade deal between the United Kingdom and United States".
An editorial in The Independent (HERE) on trade in general claims we are 'bullying' some smaller African countries into trade deals that are advantageous to us. I am not sure why The Independent is surprised because this is precisely how trade negotiations work. You exploit your own strengths to the maximum extent possible. The strongest side obtains the best deal. When talks eventually get under way with the EU, China, India and the USA this will be made painfully clear.
It's a dog eat dog world. I wonder how long it will be before we're complaining about that.
