If I was a Brexiteer I would be getting a bit nervous. After yesterday's meeting with Juncker two things emerged. Firstly, the Withdrawal Agreement is not going to be renegotiated and secondly, the EU are ready to work on the political declaration with officials said to be restarting talks to see how we can 'work together on whether a way through can be found' (HERE).
What does it mean? The implication is that the future trade deal might be able to render the backstop redundant. If I understand what the EU have been saying correctly, that the Malthouse compromise or maximum facilitation as it was called previously, is years away at best and probably just impossible, the only way the backstop can be avoided is by closer alignment.
In a later Guardian report (HERE), Theresa May comes across as a bit gormless. She has had meeting after meeting over the past few weeks with everybody in Westminster right down to the office cleaners, but travelled to Brussels yesterday with no new firm proposals, simply repeating what she was saying weeks ago and with 50 days to disaster, raising 'various options':
"The prime minister’s failure during her meetings in Brussels with EU leaders on Thursday to go beyond her previous suggestions of a time limit and unilateral exit mechanism on the Irish backstop has confirmed fears that the deal’s ratification will go to the wire.
"An EU official said it was remarkable that May had not offered 'any new concrete proposals' during her 45-minute meeting with Tusk, the European council president, which was described as 'OK' and 'honest'. Neither did the prime minister have 'any clear answers on the timeline', the official said.
"A second official warned of a 'vicious circle', in that the UK appeared unable to make any proposals and the EU was unable to act until it received a request.
"EU sources said Tusk had even suggested that Corbyn’s Brexit plan, spelled out in a letter by the Labour leader on Thursday morning, might be a way out of the impasse, but May did not respond to the point".
"A second official warned of a 'vicious circle', in that the UK appeared unable to make any proposals and the EU was unable to act until it received a request.
"EU sources said Tusk had even suggested that Corbyn’s Brexit plan, spelled out in a letter by the Labour leader on Thursday morning, might be a way out of the impasse, but May did not respond to the point".
It is as if we have completely lost the plot and looking helpless in the face of a national tragedy unfolding in front of us that we are unable to prevent. We have a leader who cannot seem to lead and is left pleading with the EU to help her out:
"It is understood that EU officials are looking at offering May a detailed plan of what a potential technological solution to the Irish border might look like, which could be included in the legally non-binding political declaration on the future trade deal.
"The blueprint would pinpoint the problem areas and commit to breaching the technical gaps where possible to offer an alternative to the customs union envisaged in the withdrawal agreement’s Irish backstop".
Any revised Brexit deal may not be put to MPs until late March, according to reports.
In spite of all this, she is still talking about delivering Brexit 'on time (HERE) - but as we know with Mrs May she is 100% certain about something right up until the moment that she's not. Watch out for a spectacular U turn.
David Davis (HERE), writing in The Telegraph on Tuesday says we have to 'hold our nerve' as if he was the card sharp and con man Henry Gondorff in The Sting, playing against an EU embodied in Doyle Lonnegan. Playing poker with the nation's economy is reckless stupidity but this is essentially what he is proposing:
"The EU has a history of making deals at the eleventh hour. They will always let negotiations go to the wire".
They do when negotiating among themselves but we shouldn't expect the Commission to be seeking consensus with a member who is leaving and threatening to throw themselves off the cliff. If Davis is expecting a climb down by the EU at the very end, he may be badly wrong, with catastrophic results for thousands of people.
The former DEXEU Secretary is still pushing a negotiated FTA that he has published along with 'Snake Oil' Singham with 'Mutual Recognition' and he says:
"... our draft FTA will enable the UK to seize the Brexit prize of our own independent trade and regulatory policy.
"This is the time for Government and Parliament to hold their nerve. There is no case whatsoever for an Article 50 extension. We need to insist on a deal that is mutually beneficial – not punitive – and that can be shown to work for everyone".
The nutter actually thinks we can sit down, reopen the Withdrawal Agreement, negotiate a FTA along his lines, get it agreed with the EU27 and approved by the UK and EU parliaments and passed into UK law in seven weeks.
Nurse, Nurse! Mr Davis has had another turn!
