Some fascinating polling work HERE by Christina Pagel, professor of Operational Research at University College London. They surveyed 5,000 people on their opinion about what UCL say are the only four possible outcomes of Brexit, and asking them to rank the options in order of preference. The results are 'crazy' as the report is headlined. None of the options wins outright (remain comes closest) and by looking at the results in different ways you get different answers.
The four options are:
- Remain
- Softer Brexit
- WA + May's deal
- No deal
It shows basically what other polls have shown, that in a straight contest remain is the most popular (45%) and no-deal is the next most popular (40%). This we know, but by looking at the 2nd, 3rd and 4th preferences in different ways you can make a case for a softer Brexit or remaining in the EU. As the authors say, "Remain and No Deal are the most popular, but they are also the least popular options, respectively, for the people who support one of them".
To me it demonstrates how polarising Brexit is.
The mystifying thing for me is how 40% of the population think no-deal is the best outcome. I don't believe I exaggerate in saying that 90% of the 'experts' on the economy, industry and commerce as well as specialists in the security and diplomatic fields, think no-deal would be utterly disastrous and have said so repeatedly. Yet, the idea is still the second most favoured outcome.
Or perhaps it isn't so surprising. Yesterday, (the same day the polling above was published) the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) Select Committee heard evidence from the Information Commissioner about a series of Facebook ads published by what the Committee chair, Damian Collins, described as a 'shady' group pushing a hard no-deal Brexit. The ads got a million clicks on Facebook and cost £250,000, according to Sky News (HERE).
The advertisements were placed and paid for in 2017 and 2018 by an anonymous group known only as Mainstream Network.
Turning to The Guardian's report on the DCMS proceedings (HERE) the cost of the ads has gone up to £1 million and they say:
"Mainstream Network was designed to look like a grassroots campaign and give the impression that the British public was rising up in support of a no-deal exit from the European Union, by encouraging the public to flood MPs’ inboxes with emails demanding one.
"However, the Guardian has revealed that the supposedly independent pro-Brexit Facebook pages were part of a series overseen by [Lynton] Crosby’s company, CTF Partners. They were backed by up to £1m in online advertising, paid for by an unknown source in a bid to push MPs to reject Theresa May’s Brexit deal".
It seems the group has connections with the Conservative party's campaign guru Lynton Crosby who is said to have masterminded their unexpected 2015 victory. You would think Facebook might be a bit more circumspect about these sort of ads but apparently it's all just money for them. The ads targeted ten million users. The ICO is currently investigating the group behind it.
Who is actually funding these ads? Are they really influencing public opinion? We know the ads are highly specific to users who are likely to be interested in them. And they reinforce what some newspapers and politicians on the extreme right have been saying for months. The PM has not helped herself with the no-deal is better than a bad deal slogan. As I have said many times, Joe public believes this stuff, it isn't just the EU who listens to it and Brussels doesn't think any sentient British prime minister would leave with no-deal anyway so it's irrelevant to them.
I find the polling quite consoling somehow. If remain and leaving without a deal are the most popular options and one of them is totally out of the question, where does that leave us?
To answer my own question, it leaves us desperately short of a leader who will spell out truthfully and in real detail what a disaster no-deal will be. This is fundamental to the whole thing. Until the average man or woman in the street understands the consequences there will be this polarisation and division. Unfortunately, I don't see such a leader - yet.
