Sir William 'Mad Bill' Cash writes in The Telegraph (HERE) that 'Theresa May is making us crawl on our hands and knees, not only to the EU, but to Germany and France' as well. I can't give you the whole article because it's behind a paywall (and I wouldn't pay anything to read his codswallop) but I believe he also accuses the PM of having made an 'abject surrender' to the EU, talking also of 'appeasement' and 'capitulation' as if he's anxious to pursue the EU withdrawal negotiations with the smell of cordite in the air.
The language in the article is extremely inflammatory, enough to provoke a response (HERE) from Nicky Morgan MP, chair of the Treasury Select Committee who recently urged MPs to use more moderate language. She said on Radio 4 that Cash's comments were:
“stoking up other people who are often sitting at home and watching this stuff, and it gets them really, really angry and fired up, and then they will say things that they would never say face to face”
You can see where he gets it from. He has his own 'European Foundation' (HERE) which 'has been dedicated since 1993 to analysis of threats from European treaty or Act of Parliament to the sovereignty of the United Kingdom' - it's a kind of Dad's Army for lawyers with Cash as Captain Mainwaring, the sole recruit. Most of the posts are about his own interventions in the House.
You can tell what a silly old buffer he is by the letter he has written to Donald Tusk (HERE) where he tells Mr Tusk he is Chair of the European Scrutiny Committee, but writing in a 'personal capacity.' He says Mrs May's agreement to the Article 50 extension may not be lawful and is 'likely to be the subject of legal challenge in the UK courts'. I assume Tusk has screwed it up and thrown it in the waste bin along with all the other rubbish he gets from dotty old men in England.
You can tell what a silly old buffer he is by the letter he has written to Donald Tusk (HERE) where he tells Mr Tusk he is Chair of the European Scrutiny Committee, but writing in a 'personal capacity.' He says Mrs May's agreement to the Article 50 extension may not be lawful and is 'likely to be the subject of legal challenge in the UK courts'. I assume Tusk has screwed it up and thrown it in the waste bin along with all the other rubbish he gets from dotty old men in England.
During the campaign, Brexiteers like Cash were told repeatedly Britain would be in a weak position in negotiations with the EU. They insisted this was 'talking Britain down' and that 'no deal was better than a bad deal' as if we could simply walk away.
Let me take you back to the heady days of October 2016 (HERE) when The Express told its readers Mrs May would not 'grovel' and quoted her saying the UK would not play the role of 'supplicant'.
David Davis (HERE) in March 2017 said the UK will enter the talks 'not as a supplicant, but as a negotiator,' adding, 'It's not for them [EU] to determine how the whole thing works. There are two sides.' This was just before he agreed that it was for the EU to determine how the whole thing works and went quietly along with Brussel's suggested phasing.
Ruth Lea, (HERE) in an article on the LSE Blog in May 2016 summarised the Leave position pretty well:
"In conclusion, it is inconceivable that any EU exporter would wish for any disruption in their trade with the UK on Brexit. And it is almost certain that the key EU governments, not least of all the German government, would act in their economic interests. The UK has a strong hand in any trade negotiations in the interim period between a Brexit vote, the triggering of Article 50 and Brexit itself. Not merely would our major EU trading partners wish for a trade agreement, but they would also be likely to push for such an agreement to be finalised expeditiously, prior to the UK’s departure. It would simply not be in their commercial interests to prolong the negotiations. And, given that the UK would be negotiating as a fully harmonised EU member, this should not be impossible".
Ruth Lea, (HERE) in an article on the LSE Blog in May 2016 summarised the Leave position pretty well:
"In conclusion, it is inconceivable that any EU exporter would wish for any disruption in their trade with the UK on Brexit. And it is almost certain that the key EU governments, not least of all the German government, would act in their economic interests. The UK has a strong hand in any trade negotiations in the interim period between a Brexit vote, the triggering of Article 50 and Brexit itself. Not merely would our major EU trading partners wish for a trade agreement, but they would also be likely to push for such an agreement to be finalised expeditiously, prior to the UK’s departure. It would simply not be in their commercial interests to prolong the negotiations. And, given that the UK would be negotiating as a fully harmonised EU member, this should not be impossible".
Three years on Ms Lea's analysis is palpable nonsense and the May/Davis idea that the UK is not the supplicant is clearly wrong. But even now Cash and his ilk do not get it.
The UK is in a WEAK position. No deal is NOT better than a bad deal. The fact we are having to make concessions is not surrender, capitulation or appeasement, it is simply a reflection on the relative strengths of the two sides. Of course this is hard for men like Cash to accept but accept it they must - sooner or later - since it is the beginning of what will perhaps be the greatest and longest period of humiliation this country has faced since 1066.
The Withdrawal Agreement is just the start. Next comes the future relationship negotiations which will take years and involve many more painful compromises, each one a nail in the coffin of 'global Britain'. I stumbled across an academic paper from last September about the way the British have conducted the negotiations and it makes fascinating reading. I'll post about it tomorrow.
This afternoon, talks are set to resume (HERE) between the government and opposition to try and find a way of achieving a consensus on the WA so that we don't have to go through the charade of the European elections. Needless to say nobody is optimistic.
Conservative MPs and chairs of local associations are far more concerned with stepping up efforts to persuade Theresa May to go (HERE) and are perhaps finding out what Ken Clarke meant when he described her as a 'bloody difficult woman'. Nigel Evans, the egregious secretary of the 1922 committee of back bench MPs was on Radio 4 this morning making threatening noises about her position. He wants her to go immediately but I think she will stubbornly cling on, maybe even offering to stand down only if her WA is passed, giving the Brexiteers the dilemma of their lives.
Personally, I have no time for Theresa May but to plunge the party into a leadership election now would be the height of folly. Bad as things are, they will only get worse for the Tories. All of the deep divisions would be played out in full view of the electorate and the party would probably split anyway. If Johnson ever managed to come through the carnage as leader, the party would certainly split. When I think about it, I am not sure a unifying figure like Jeremy Hunt (Jeremy Hunt, what am I saying!) would be able to succeed either. Neither wing is in the mood to compromise and he would be seen as Mrs May in drag. In which case a split is inevitable.
In that case, the new leader would emerge bruised and bloodied, the head of a smaller splinter party and be faced with exactly the same conditions in parliament, the country and the EU. Nothing in practical terms would change except he or she would be in a worse position to get Brexit (whatever form it takes) over the line.
But don't worry the ERG and Tory Associations are unlikely to be swayed by logic. They're like dogs digging in the garden, totally oblivious to the mess, panting and covered in soil and slowly disappearing down a hole of their own making.
We have spent the best part of three years on the easy bit. The WA only really covers citizens rights, the divorce bill and the Irish border. The EU hasn't made any concessions so far. It doesn't matter if Johnson, Rees-Mogg and Farage go in together as a triumvirate, it won't make any difference. The hard truth is the EU is 27 countries, seven times our population and our economy. They are our biggest customer and our biggest supplier.
Don't hold your breath for a better deal. What we are faced with is a deal far worse than we have now or one even worse than that, but Brexiteers do not want to admit it - yet.
Don't hold your breath for a better deal. What we are faced with is a deal far worse than we have now or one even worse than that, but Brexiteers do not want to admit it - yet.
