Wednesday 8 May 2019

EU ELECTIONS CONFIRMED BY SHATTERED DEPUTY PM

David Lidington looked utterly exhausted yesterday as he announced the European elections will definitely go ahead (below). The deputy PM appeared not to have slept for several days as if he was single handedly running Whitehall while working in the evenings negotiating with Labour and then doing night shifts stacking shelves  - both the latter activities in an effort to make ends meet as it were.  This is what Brexit does to people deeply involved in it.

He seemed to be wearing a shirt he had slept in and a tie hurriedly put on at knife point in a mirrorless room.  Just when you think things can't get any more shambolic the deputy PM comes on national TV looking like a vagrant.

Anyway, the elections they said would not happen will now happen for sure. There is also the growing suspicion that the Brexit they said would happen will not. We can only hope.

Both parties are going to need a manifesto. Labour's will be difficult but the Tories looks completely impossible. And I do hope Theresa May isn't going to rely on Lidington to write their pitch for the European elections. He is a spent force and could do with a spell at The Priory I think.  May's second in command looked as if he needed to sleep until the 23rd of May at least.

No, it will take a spectacular piece of word smithery to create a masterpiece of obfuscation, the arranging of long words carefully to look as if they mean everything to everybody while committing nobody to anything. If you can write the policy down it must be wrong. Nobody has any idea what the strategy is or where Brexit is leading, if indeed it's going anywhere at all. The Tory 2019 European manifesto will probably look like a minor work from an obscure German philosopher where the sole objective is to defeat any possible understanding - while making you feel better for having tried.

Getting Sir Bill Cash and Dominic Grieve to agree on it will take some doing and almost certainly be impossible without sedatives. They may even decide it's not worth the hassle and do without a manifesto, treating it like the 2016 referendum where MPs were free to decide their own policy unicorns, rather than use the ones provided by Central Office. We wait with interest.

Rachel Sylvester at The Times (HERE) has a nice piece where she says (rightly I think) that Labour has nothing to gain by bailing out the Tories and that all roads now lead to a confirmatory vote. She explains the local election results like this:

"The prime minister and the Labour leader both claim that the message of the local elections was that politicians need to 'get on' with delivering the 2016 referendum result. In fact the voters were protesting against the dishonesty and obfuscation of the two main parties over Europe. The strongest performances came from the Lib Dems and the Greens, which both clearly supported Remain. If the Brexit Party had been standing, it would almost certainly have done well too since many Leave voters spoilt their ballot papers. The last thing that is going to win back public trust is a Westminster stitch-up behind closed doors in what Nigel Farage has already characterised as a 'coalition against the people'."

Ms Sylvester is surely right.

The two front benches cobbling something together at the last minute and then painting it as the only possible deal - without letting the public decide that it is what they actually want would be a travesty of democracy.

The final battle lines are becoming clearer I think. The confirmatory vote must be between leaving without a deal - and probably not getting a deal for years, if ever, because the atmosphere between us and the EU would become so poisonous - and remaining in the EU on our present favoured terms.

The real decision that we have been putting off for three years is getting closer.

Justine Greening writes in similar fashion for Conservative Home (HERE) arguing for a second vote with all three options on the ballot. She says:

"Ministers need to be pragmatic that Parliament is deadlocked. This Brexit Parliament has rejected every Brexit option – hard or soft. The only people who can now decide are the public themselves in a confirmatory vote. All three principal options should be on the ballot – WTO Brexit, the Prime Minister’s soft Brexit Deal, and Remain, with a first and second preference vote. The result should be binding, triggering a Revoke Article 50 letter, a Withdrawal Agreement Bill passed unamended or a WTO rules departure, depending on the result. A confirmatory vote is the only way we’ll really find out what route forward people really want, and the irreversibility of the next step means it’s only sensible to ask. There is no pain-free option now".

The showdown meeting between the PM and Sir Graham Brady took place yesterday (HERE) but like so many Brexit related crises it didn't live up to its billing - or at least we haven't been told yet what happened. She certainly hasn't resigned and probably won't for a while yet. I believe May's usual practice is to listen carefully and then summarise without giving away what she herself thinks or plans so Brady is probably no wiser.

He might have got further by whistling in the wind.