You can tell how far we've come when the chairman of the 1922 Committee, usually one of the milder and more serious politicians, is warning the PM (HERE) against letting dangerous extremists in the opposition anywhere near No 10. Of course, being a Conservative, Sir Graham Brady isn't concerned in the least about the malign influence the dangerous extremists in the Tory party have already had on Brexit and government policy. But there you are.
Writing in The Telegraph (£), his comments found their way into the Daily Mail for free. They quote him saying:
"... a deal that includes a customs union would have 'unthinkable consequences' and allow 'dangerous extremists' in the Labour party closer to Number 10".
Sir Graham is to meet Mrs May later today in another despairing attempt to get her to set a firm date for her resignation. Good luck with that. The prime minister makes a mule look compliant.
I suppose since Brexit was always going to take years that the negotiations at some point would have to be taken over by another leader and possibly more than one. Indeed the Commission itself will see fresh faces at the end of the year. Jean Claude Juncker will step down and a new President of the Commission elected (elected note) by October. Barnier is said to be interested in the job. So changes around both sides of the table were always inevitable.
However, in Brussels these are (a) scheduled events and (b) very unlikely to change the negotiating mandate. See the difference? This is the benefit of consulting early, agreeing a position, preparing a sensible mandate and sticking to it. In the UK Mrs May behaved like a medieval monarch and took everything upon herself, so the deal with her unique stamp on it doesn't have widespread backing - if it has any at all. Our side is nothing but instability and confusion. She thought she could walk on water but is now finding it difficult to keep her head above it.
If Theresa May had acted differently and found common ground at the beginning she would not now be facing calls for her to resign.
That she did not is her own fault and hers alone so I have no sympathy with her at all, but is it wise now to change the leader at this crucial point? I'm not sure it is. She is thought to be promising to go as soon as the Withdrawal Agreement is ratified and I'm not sure that's wise either. What a legacy it would be to force through a bad deal and leave all sides divided and still arguing.
However, I would not envy any incoming leader because the nation seems to have little or no appetite for any obvious outcome. This tweet from John Rentoul shows the problem.
This @ComRes poll on the acceptability of Brexit outcomes, from 5-7 April, is worth going back to https://t.co/M1QcaOdvfB pic.twitter.com/EMqFvJta3v— John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) May 6, 2019
What comes across from this polling is the order of the things which are most acceptable (this takes some following because the acceptable options are all negative so it's the ones which are least negative that are most acceptable - if you see what I mean). Revoking Article 50 surprisingly comes top followed by a referendum on the deal or staying in. These are the most popular.
The least acceptable - the long delay in a customs union - is least popular along with May's deal. Leaving with no deal at all with or without a referendum is somewhere in the middle.
But there's not that much between any of them and none command a majority. This is probably what makes drawing conclusions from last week's local elections so difficult. Revoking Article 50 comes amazingly high with growing support and waning opposition. This is preferred above another referendum even. It increasingly looks as if people are thoroughly sick of Brexit and just want it closed. Unfortunately, I don't believe that's possible - but it makes a second vote far more likely.
This might be behind reports (HERE) that the government has carried out some scenario planning for such a vote. Perhaps we are starting to push at an opening door?
Talks between Labour and the government, set to continue into a sixth week with rumours of a big offer being made by Mrs May, are said to be on a 'knife edge' (HERE) but personally I don't expect any agreement to be reached.
Finally, something caught my eye on Reuters about the booming insurance market in Luxembourg which is enjoying a Brexit driven boost (HERE). While we are going round in circles, financial businesses are relocating and Luxembourg is the beneficiary. Insurance premiums in the non-life sector, including domestic business, jumped by 218 percent and the total insurance premiums, including life assurance, were up 46 percent at 9.43 billion euros (8.06 billion pounds).
Brexit is our loss and their gain.
The least acceptable - the long delay in a customs union - is least popular along with May's deal. Leaving with no deal at all with or without a referendum is somewhere in the middle.
But there's not that much between any of them and none command a majority. This is probably what makes drawing conclusions from last week's local elections so difficult. Revoking Article 50 comes amazingly high with growing support and waning opposition. This is preferred above another referendum even. It increasingly looks as if people are thoroughly sick of Brexit and just want it closed. Unfortunately, I don't believe that's possible - but it makes a second vote far more likely.
This might be behind reports (HERE) that the government has carried out some scenario planning for such a vote. Perhaps we are starting to push at an opening door?
Talks between Labour and the government, set to continue into a sixth week with rumours of a big offer being made by Mrs May, are said to be on a 'knife edge' (HERE) but personally I don't expect any agreement to be reached.
Finally, something caught my eye on Reuters about the booming insurance market in Luxembourg which is enjoying a Brexit driven boost (HERE). While we are going round in circles, financial businesses are relocating and Luxembourg is the beneficiary. Insurance premiums in the non-life sector, including domestic business, jumped by 218 percent and the total insurance premiums, including life assurance, were up 46 percent at 9.43 billion euros (8.06 billion pounds).
Brexit is our loss and their gain.
