When the referendum was lost in 2016 I was shocked and in utter despair. At first I hoped Brexit might somehow be avoided but by the beginning of 2017 and certainly by March 29th it seemed inevitable that we would be out of the EU in two years. Looking back now I think we can see that June 24th 2016 was the high point for Brexiteers and it has been all downhill since.
In fact Brexit is beginning to eat itself.
What we are seeing is the anti-EU right attacking everything and everyone they think is thwarting Brexit. This will go on for some time.
May was attacked by her own MPs, right-wing commentators in the press, Farage and the Brexit party and frustrated leave voters. There will be a short pause while the next prime minister is chosen until it becomes clear that they too have failed - this will not take very long - and he or she will then be meted out the same treatment as May.
Is Brexit ever going to be delivered? Firstly, if I hear that phrase one more time I'll rip my own head off - but in my opinion it becomes less likely by the day.
What seemed like a master stroke by the Vote Leave campaign at the time, to avoid any specific plan or final status for exiting the EU, may have won the referendum but it will lose them the prize eventually. Three years after the vote the detailed 'plan' that has been painstakingly negotiated is in serious trouble. It seems clear May's deal will not get through parliament and the choice opening up is to leave without a deal (which also will not get through parliament) or no Brexit. For the first time since the whole sorry shambles started I think we are beginning to see remaining in the EU as a real possibility.
Three things:
Despite all the bravado by the swivel eyed Brexiteers led by Rees-Mogg and the ERG, leaving with no deal and trading on WTO terms would be catastrophic and no PM could seriously contemplate it and last more than a week after it happened. Ask yourself which business would voluntarily opt for trading with its best customer and biggest supplier on the worst possible terms?
Imagine this. You have been enjoying a uniquely close relationship with your main customers and suppliers, frictionless trade, extended credit on goods purchased, cheap delivery costs, instant payment by customers, preferential access for orders and so on. Suddenly, out of the blue and for no apparent reason, you decide to withdraw cooperation, erect barriers, switch off the fibre-optic data transfers, return to letter post, horse and cart delivery, accept paying for your supplies pro-forma and agree to give 90 or 120 days credit to your customers. Could you do it? Technically you could and carry on trading - for a while. Is it a good idea? Err... No.
Next, most if not all of the leadership hopefuls will claim they will take us out on October 31st with or without a deal. The next leader of the Tories will adopt this as the policy, otherwise they won't be leader. You can bank on that. But it will be an empty threat, a bluff to force concessions from Brussels. It will certainly fail because the EU don't believe it's credible.
The Tory government is risking the nation's future prosperity as if, following heavy losses, it was the last valuable family bauble to be gambled away at a late night card game in Aspinalls to settle an internal ideological dispute that has rumbled on inside the party for years. The non-gamblers amongst us can only look on in horror as the cards slide out of the shoe. It might be a laugh for an Old Etonian but for millions it is not in the least funny. You can bet as summer fades away the ante will be upped until neither side can afford to lose - but in reality only one can, the EU.
Finally, if the gamble fails and "the new Prime Minister decides to take the UK out of the EU without a deal, relations would be damaged and it may be a while until the two sides are prepared to talk in detail. But they would need to – the temporary contingency measures the EU are putting in place are nowhere near a full relationship and may only last a couple of months after 31 October", says Tim Durrant at the IfG (HERE).
Relations would be damaged is an understatement. They would become utterly fractious and poisonous with hardened attitudes on both sides, recriminations and blame flying between them. That it 'may be a while' until the two sides are ready to start again is another understatement. It could take months or years even. Meanwhile the British government would give new meaning to the word turmoil.
Durrant continues, "But the EU has said that its first request in any talks after a no deal exit will be around citizens’ rights, the UK’s financial settlement and the Irish border – aka the Withdrawal Agreement. So before getting a deal on long-term arrangements, the UK will have to find a way forward on the same issues – in particular, the Irish border backstop – which have led to the current deal being repeatedly rejected".
In plain English, after the turmoil we would be back where we are now but in a far weaker position. Outside the Article 50 framework, a non-member with zero leverage and starting from scratch under Article 218 of the TFEU.
So, do I think any PM would take the risk? No.
Of the three possible options, May's deal or something like it, no deal or no Brexit, which looks the most likely? As Sherlock Holmes once said, when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?
May's deal and no deal are impossible, so what's left? However improbable it looks now, it may finally be that what we are left with is no Brexit.
Finally, on Farage. Some years ago on holiday in Wales, we found ourselves in a queue close to the cenotaph at the entrance to Pembroke Castle (HERE) and I couldn't help notice the inscription on the memorial to our First World War dead. This was a long time ago, before Nigel Farage was infamous when we all thought he was a harmless idiot, but the words chiselled into the stone struck a chord and I've always remembered them:
FORGET US NOT O LAND FOR WHICH WE FELL,
MAY IT GO WELL WITH ENGLAND STILL GO WELL
KEEP HER BRIGHT BANNERS WITHOUT SPOT OR STAIN
LEST WE SHOULD DREAM THAT WE HAVE DIED IN VAIN
The writer isn't known but I'm quite certain if he was alive today he would think Farage had dragged England's bright banner through the mud. It will take years to wash out the stains he and his ilk have left.
That such a man as Farage should represent our country abroad is deeply shaming.
