Friday 31 May 2019

RAAB AND THE NO DEAL BREXITEERS IGNORE REALITY

It's hard to know what to make of Dominic Raab. Some might say a couple of short planks would be a good start. In the 2019 Tory leadership stakes he is lagging behind the front runner but is well placed if Boris stumbles, as is quite likely. Raab has obviously had his lickspittle friend Nick De Bois MP, write an obsequious piece about him in The Telegraph (HERE No£) claiming the EU are frightened of the former Brexit secretary. This is the man pictured last year wide-eyed and sweaty, looking like a fugitive from justice, alongside the urbane Barnier in Brussels.  Don't make me laugh.

The number of candidates has now reached twelve - with Mark Harper being the latest to declare. (Mark who?). The list is beginning to look like the register in a school for non-entities.

Half of them are advocating a no deal Brexit as a decent policy objective rather than a suicide note. Raab is presenting himself as the shaven headed hard man leading this bunch of kamikaze pilots. No doubt it will appeal to party members. 

An article in The iNews (HERE) helps us all understand Raab's position. It leads with what is presumably a picture of a typical supporter, wearing a tee shirt announcing he is Theresa May's EU prisoner and demanding FREEDOM, NO DEAL AND OUT.  If we do leave without a deal, that tee shirt will never see the light again and the owner will claim he can't remember which way he voted in 2016. 

Raab says he's ready to leave with no deal and should he secure the Tory leadership, vows to take a 'zero-tolerance' approach to any Cabinet member who does not fully commit to a no deal Brexit. He sounds like Stalin who would have his political opponents taken outside and shot.

“To those people saying: ‘Well, would you really do it?, I resigned over it. So I think people can feel confident that I’ve got the courage of my convictions,” he told The Spectator.

He might have the courage of his convictions - but have we?  Only his reputation would suffer but since it's pretty worthless anyway, what does he have to lose?

I wanted to set out Raab's views because they demonstrate just how detached from reality, he and his fellow candidates, as well as the great majority of Conservative members, have become. 

Firstly, the CBI are desperately worried and have written another open letter (HERE) pleading with the government. I've lost count of CBI open letters, there's a lever arch file in Downing Street full of them. None have had the slightest effect.  The BBC (HERE) carry the latest report: "A no-deal scenario would do "severe" damage to businesses, the [CBI] - which supported Remain - told all the MPs running to lead the party".

The pound is sinking steadily and looking at the worst run for years as it heads towards $1.25 territory (HERE) largely on increased fears of a no deal Brexit. The markets have us on suicide watch as the Tory leadership contest gets under way.

Car production dropped 44.5% in April (HERE) caused by planned stoppages in April to avoid the March 29th deadline - the one that never happened. It was the eleventh consecutive month of falling output. The SMMT said factories would not be able to repeat the April process for the new 31st October Brexit deadline.

Donations from business to The Conservative party fell by a half in the first three months of the year and this morning a YouGov poll (HERE) of 1700 people puts the LibDems (24%) ahead of Farage's Brexit party (22%) and both the Tories and Labour on 19% each!  Shock horror.  

As the Tory party heads for oblivion they are far too busy with internal politics to notice the nation is turning against them and all because of Brexit.

Against this backdrop, Stephen Barclay visited Kent the other day to tell local residents that the controversial 50 mph speed limits on the M20 between junctions 8 and 9 will remain in place until the UK reaches a Brexit deal. It was not altogether popular, but this wasn't the important issue.

Barclay, not a man one would have much confidence in if he was managing a whelk stall, told the local website KentOnline (HERE), "On the issue of a no-deal Brexit, Mr Barclay said he would be prepared to accept that as it would be the best way of honouring what voters had called for in the referendum".

In 2016 voters decided we should leave the EU. I think it's reasonable to assume that many, if not most of them thought it meant we would leave with a deal. Not least because they were told it would be the easiest thing in the world (Liam Fox), would take no more than ten minutes (Peter Lilley) and we would hold all the cards (Michael Gove). I don't believe we can conclude ALL leavers thought a deal was likely but neither can we assume they all thought a no deal Brexit was acceptable. 

However, now that it has all gone pear shaped and the deal we've got is not very good, the Brexiteers say leaving and trading on WTO terms is the thing to do - to honour the result of the referendum - even if the economy gets wasted. 

Meanwhile mad siren voices in the pro-Brexit press and websites are all spurring them onward Kamikaze-like to some glorious but fatal end. What a way to go, eh?