According to press reports the prime minister is set to take a mighty swing at the can and kick it all the way to 2022. Yesterday the Sunday Times reported (HERE £) that she is about to make an offer to Corbyn, as early as tomorrow, to try and break the logjam that keeps us teetering on the edge of leaving the EU. The Telegraph later followed up with another article (HERE) which says the offer will consist of three elements:
The last two would have the UK (b) aligning closely with EU rules on a wider range of goods and (c) enshrining EU workers' rights in UK law and mirror all future changes. These are important but the real problem is the main element (a), which is for the UK to effectively remain in the customs union until the 2022 general election when both parties will then be free to go for a harder or softer Brexit in their manifestos.
This is absolutely massive can kicking.
I am not sure the EU would even agree to it as a way of trying to settle our own internal divisions, but let's assume they would. The problem is that it doesn't actually resolve the issue, it just puts off a decision for another three years at least!!
So it seems as if Mrs May will finally give us a vote, just not until it's too late to return to what we have at the moment. Why, can't we have a second vote NOW? It does not make sense to narrow the choice and at the same time, create another three years of uncertainty.
To me Brexit has always been a bit daft, starting from the referendum which resulted in us deciding to leave but without knowing where we were going. Normally with these kind of things we have a Royal Commission to take evidence and gather the details before making a decision. With Brexit we are doing the reverse. Let's make a decision first and then get the details.
As it is we are still sitting in the house arguing about where we ought to go. With May's deal - if it ever gets approved with Corbyn's help - the family will have to sell up, hand over the keys and get out, coats buttoned up and luggage in hand but still without any idea where we are off to! We will have no chance of ever getting back inside. It is insane.
But getting the revised deal through parliament will not be easy. Usually, on highly contentious matters there is a wide centre in the House for some mainstream, quite obvious policy and a few MPs on the narrow right and left fringes with madcap ideas that will never get approved. Again, Brexit is different. There is a narrow band of MPs down the middle and wide extremes on either side. Bernard Jenkin (why do people with the name Jenkins like to fiddle with the letters in their own surname? He has no 's' at the end and Andrea spells hers with a 'y') the MP for Harwich and mad keen Brexiteer (HERE), argues that what he calls an 'anti-Brexit alliance' between May and Corbyn will be a catastrophe and he warns Labour against getting involved. He says:
"So, unless Brussels can be persuaded to replace the backstop, a WTO Brexit is the only realistic way to achieve Brexit. It will be difficult for many MPs to come to terms with this, but we have no choice, or the Farage bandwagon will roll".
A WTO Brexit is what we call crashing out without a deal. This will never happen but probably a hundred or more MPs, mainly Tory and DUP think it should and will. Don't worry it will not.
Jenkin is another one who thinks the local election results were not a "sudden enthusiasm for staying in the EU or for a second referendum, or (least of all) for Mrs May’s deal", which is odd because parties in favour of both were the main beneficiaries. He surely cannot believe the people didn't know what they were voting for, or could he?
The Telegraph article I linked to above by Jack Maidment concludes with a cautionary note for Mrs May and the Brexiteers:
"But with both the Tories and Labour suffering a ballot box bruising over Brexit at the local elections, there is now a feeling that some MPs may be more willing to be flexible to get a deal over the line. This is good news for Labour because parliamentary arithmetic would suggest that if the Commons is ready to compromise it is likely to be in the direction of a customs union-based deal.
"Which provides Mrs May with another headache: If the direction of travel is towards a softer Brexit plan built on a permanent closer relationship with the EU, why would Labour accept a compromise from the Prime Minister which falls short?"
In any event the 'anti-Brexit alliance' is likely to create huge cracks in both parties. It will perhaps really be the moment of truth when we finally after three long years, get to see a decision made about how close or distant our future relationship with the EU will be.
