Saturday 18 May 2019

THE GOVERNMENT STRATEGY REVEALED

Robert Peston (HERE) has got hold of a leaked memo from someone in government setting out what Mrs May hoped to be able to put to the House of Commons in a series of indicative votes to find out what a majority of MPs would support. There are five points. Two have multiple options that would be narrowed down in a series of votes with the least popular being eliminated until only one option was left.  Since the talks have broken down without an agreement it's not clear what will now happen but the next step was always some sort of parliamentary process so she may still try some more indicative votes.

However, for me that isn't the issue. Points 3 and 5 in the memo show the general direction of travel with the options that parliament was supposed to vote on, all of which look like more unicorns to me. This is point 3:

"A customs arrangement that combines the benefits of a customs union - no tariffs, fees, charges or quantitative restrictions - plus no checks on rules of origin when goods move between the UK and the EU with the ability for the UK to determine its own external trade policy and international development policy.

"A comprehensive customs union covering both goods and services, including a UK say in EU trade policy, at least until alternative arrangements that maintain as close to frictionless trade as possible with the EU and no hard border on the island of Ireland have been agreed.

"A customs union covering goods, including a say in relevant EU trade policy, at least until the next election.

"A comprehensive customs union covering both goods and services including a UK say in EU trade policy."

Labour's unicorns are the last three, being in a or the customs union and having influence on EU trade policy while being a non member. The first is essentially the Withdrawal Agreement although how we avoid Rules of Origin checks without having exactly the same tariffs is a mystery.

Point 5 is even worse:

"Parliament must approve the UK's objectives for the negotiations on our future relationship with the EU and approve the treaty governing that relationship before the Government signs it.

"The UK should seek as close to frictionless trade in goods with the EU as possible, subject to the UK being outside the Single Market and ending free movement, to protect jobs in just-in-time supply chains.

"In order to deliver as close to frictionless trade in goods as possible, the UK should dynamically align with those EU rules for goods and agri-food products that are relevant to checks at the border.

"The UK should seek the fullest possible participation in EU tools and measures that protect citizens' security.

"The UK should seek the fullest possible participation in key EU agencies, including the European Medicines Agency, the European Aviation Safety Agency and the European Chemicals Agency in relation to the economic partnership and Europol and Eurojust in relation to the security partnership.

"Workers' rights in the UK should be no less favourable than rights in the EU.

"The UK's withdrawal from the UK should not affect the level of environmental protection in the UK."

They have spent 42 days discussing the whole thing but there in the memo they are still talking about 'frictionless' trade - something that isn't mentioned at all in the political declaration. 

What comes across is how close a relationship we are trying to get. Both sides were agreed on wanting 'participation' in various key EU agencies and close security cooperation. Keeping employment and environmental standards the same as the EU is also common ground. It's clear both sides recognise where the centre of parliamentary gravity is. A hard no deal Brexit looks as remote as it's ever been.

If these options do go to MPs it will be fascinating to see who votes against keeping workers rights and environmental protection the same as the EU.

Meanwhile, new polling shows BoJo is miles ahead in Tory circles (HERE) with his supporters claiming he's the only one who can stop Nigel Farage. This is not quite true of course, since Farage himself is easily his own worst enemy. His Brexit party - or Brexit Ltd as it's officially known - seems to have mysterious sources of money and is staffed by a bunch of xenophobic, swivel eyed imbeciles - what could possibly go right?

I still can't see Johnson being elected. Even though at 39% he is way in front of second placed man Raab who is on 13%. Tory MPs know BoJo and while they will be forced to include at least one Brexiteer in the final run off I would be stunned if they permitted Boris to be that person. The closer he gets to No 10 the more strident the attacks from his own side will become. Watch out for a desperate Gove style piece of character assassination right at the end. It won't take very much since his character has been on life support for years. Being a liar and chancer, unfaithful and  narcissistic may be prerequisites for any prospective PM - Francis Urquhart was all of these things and seemed ideally suited - but BoJo is also stupid, dim as a Toc-H lamp and doesn't do detail. He doesn't even do broad brush either. He is a joke, except with a certain section of the Tory membership and the general public who actually think he could run a large whelk stall with his a***e hanging out of his trousers while spouting Greek verse. No he could not.

One almost wishes they do elect him leader. He would single handedly destroy the party which we might all be grateful for, but the collateral damage would include the country, industry, public services and just about everything we hold dear. 

The whole idea of being prime minister is to be a person that can command a majority in parliament. Theresa May, a centrist candidate couldn't manage it, and so the Conservatives now want to try someone from the very outer edge. And with Boris I am talking not only about the outer edge of Brexit, but also of reality itself.

If you thought Mrs May has made a complete horlicks of Brexit (and who doesn't), the next Tory leader, a Brexiteer for sure, will soon show us what a real horlicks looks like.