I've been away for a few days in Wales and was amazed to find there are still places in the UK where you can't actually get broadband or a 'phone line or a mobile signal! Fortunately, being the dog days of Brexit nothing much happened. All that changed yesterday.
Firstly, Theresa May finally agreed to agree a timetable for her to step down as Tory leader. Like Brexit, her departure is being arranged at a speed that makes glacier movement seem meteoric. There is no agreement, only an agreement to reach one. What is it about Mrs May? She leaves grown men either in tears or talking of slashing their wrists. Talks go in ever increasing circles before disappearing into infinity.
And I note the statement released by Sir Graham Brady after his meeting (HERE) with her only mentions a timetable for electing a new 'leader' but fails to mention an actual date or whether she also intends to step down as prime minister as well. I assume she will but you never know. The bloody difficult woman may have outfoxed the 1922 committee chairman. The agreement will apparently be agreed after she tries once more to get her deal approved.
May is still (still!) thinking she might be able to get it through the House, this time in the guise of the second reading of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill. MPs have not seen this bill yet although I have read it being described as 'dynamite'. This would be dynamite in the sense that it is likely to blow the Tory party to kingdom come. It will be her fourth attempt and nobody, but nobody thinks she will succeed.
However, the European issue has claimed another Tory PM and it was enough to to get all the potential leadership candidates, that's about 90% of the Conservative parliamentary party by the way, very excited. It's not that the party has a surfeit of talent, only that the bar is now so low almost every Tory MP thinks they could do it.
They are going to face a choice of electing a Brexiteer or a Remainer. Another so-called unifying candidate like Theresa May will never get a majority in my opinion so Jeremy Hunt's efforts to masquerade as a younger version of Bill Cash will I fear come to nought. The ERG are stupid but not that stupid. Will MPs manage to whittle down the extended starting lineup and eventually put two remainers to party members? I doubt it. Either one of the candidates will be a Brexiteer or both, in which case our next prime minister will definitely be a Brexiteer, but probably not BoJo. At least that's my take on it.
Steve Norris, the former Conservative MP and London mayoral candidate tweeted a few weeks ago:
However, the European issue has claimed another Tory PM and it was enough to to get all the potential leadership candidates, that's about 90% of the Conservative parliamentary party by the way, very excited. It's not that the party has a surfeit of talent, only that the bar is now so low almost every Tory MP thinks they could do it.
They are going to face a choice of electing a Brexiteer or a Remainer. Another so-called unifying candidate like Theresa May will never get a majority in my opinion so Jeremy Hunt's efforts to masquerade as a younger version of Bill Cash will I fear come to nought. The ERG are stupid but not that stupid. Will MPs manage to whittle down the extended starting lineup and eventually put two remainers to party members? I doubt it. Either one of the candidates will be a Brexiteer or both, in which case our next prime minister will definitely be a Brexiteer, but probably not BoJo. At least that's my take on it.
Steve Norris, the former Conservative MP and London mayoral candidate tweeted a few weeks ago:
OK, cards on the table. Johnson is the only MP who if elected PM would cause me to leave the Tory party. Everybody likes him except the people who know him. Total chancer who doesn’t read his papers. Cynical & self indulgent. https://t.co/e5MW2p35zy— Steve Norris (@StevenJNorris) April 22, 2019
I really cannot see Johnson getting into the final run off.
The parliamentary arithmetic is not likely to change, but the Conservative party is. It will become a smaller party with even less chance of getting a no-deal Brexit through the House. Many remainers will find it impossible to continue to represent the party. If BoJo is elected leader, that number will only be much bigger. He would smash the party into two.
Whoever is leader will probably try to renegotiate with the EU but I can't see that getting anywhere. They will sooner or later come down to the same issue. Do we leave without a deal and devastate the economy or do we accept the Withdrawal Agreement as it is? Either way, the new leader may not last as long as Mrs May. Her three years will seem like an eternity.
The parliamentary arithmetic is not likely to change, but the Conservative party is. It will become a smaller party with even less chance of getting a no-deal Brexit through the House. Many remainers will find it impossible to continue to represent the party. If BoJo is elected leader, that number will only be much bigger. He would smash the party into two.
Whoever is leader will probably try to renegotiate with the EU but I can't see that getting anywhere. They will sooner or later come down to the same issue. Do we leave without a deal and devastate the economy or do we accept the Withdrawal Agreement as it is? Either way, the new leader may not last as long as Mrs May. Her three years will seem like an eternity.
And it will surely mean either a general election or a second referendum.
The leadership contest will almost certainly spark one of those occasions you see in foreign parliaments where a huge fight breaks out - usually between opposing sides. The Tory election will be different. The fighting will be on one side while the opposition looks on. The blood letting will be something to behold and I'm not sure the party can survive. It will be out of the frying pan into the fire.
The other thing that happened is the talks between the government and Labour are set to close without an agreement - not even having got to the stage of agreeing to agree to reach an agreement in the future (HERE). Things are that bad - as if we didn't know.
Brexit is the disaster that keeps on taking.
